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Tracking world trade and GDP in real time

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  • Roberto Golinelli

    ()
    (University of Bologna)

  • Giuseppe Parigi

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 920.

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Date of creation: Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_920_13

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Keywords: World Trade and GDP forecasts; Augmented Bridge Models; real-time data; forecasting ability Abstract This paper proposes a simple procedure to obtain monthly assessments of short-run perspectives for quarterly world GDP and trade. It combines emerging and advanced countries’; high frequency information to explain quarterly national accounts variables through bridge models. The union of all bridge equations leads to our world bridge model (WBM). The WBM econometric approach is new for two reasons: its equations combine traditional short-run bridging with theoretical level-relationships; it is the first time that forecasts of world GDP and trade are computed for advanced and emerging countries on the basis of a real-time database of 7; 000 time series. Although the performance of the equations that are automatically searched for should be taken as a lower bound; results show a better WBM forecasting ability than the benchmark case and confirm the usefulness of combining WBM real-time forecasts with preliminary releases to improve the prediction of world trade. Finally; we show that the (unrealistic) use of revised data leads to a systematic overstatement of model forecasting performance.;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Katja Drechsel & S. Giesen & Axel Lindner, 2014. "Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators," IWH Discussion Papers 4, Halle Institute for Economic Research.

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