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Declining output growth volatility: A sectoral decomposition

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  • Chun, Hyunbae
  • Kim, Jung-Wook

Abstract

A decomposition of the U.S. aggregate output growth volatility using two-digit industry-level data shows that more than 60% of the post-1983 reduction in aggregate output growth volatility is attributed to the lowered comovement in total factor productivity (TFP) growth between industries. In contrast, stabilized input and TFP growths within an industry contribute little.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-4XM6K64-1/2/382f9491b25b4aa94394c35371a90fc3
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 106 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 151-153

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:106:y:2010:i:3:p:151-153

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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Keywords: Great moderation Total factor productivity Volatility;

References

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  1. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
  4. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
  6. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  7. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Volatility accounting: a production perspective on increased economic stability," Staff Reports 245, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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