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The Risk Premium of Gold

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  • Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno
  • Prokopczuk, Marcel
  • Wese Simen, Chardin

Abstract

This paper examines the properties of the gold risk premium. We estimate a parsimonious model for the gold risk premium and uncover important time variations in the dynamics of the risk premium. We also estimate risk premia of the stock and bond markets, and investigate the role of gold as a hedge and safe haven asset from an ex-ante point of view. The results show that gold is not expected to serve as hedge and safe haven for the bond and stock markets, but it is so realized ex-post. Further, we find that gold is neither expected to be an inflation hedge nor is it realized.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "The Risk Premium of Gold," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-616, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-616
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Gao, Wang & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "Does political risk matter for gold market fluctuations? A structural VAR analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Safe Havens, Machine Learning, and the Sources of Geopolitical Risk: A Forecasting Analysis Using Over a Century of Data," Working Papers 202201, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Intrinsic decompositions in gold forecasting," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Joshua Nielsen, 2022. "Stock Market Bubbles and the Forecastability of Gold Returns (and Volatility)," Working Papers 202228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Manuel Ammann & Mathis Moerke & Marcel Prokopczuk & Christoph Matthias Würsig, 2023. "Commodity tail risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 168-197, February.
    8. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Rojas, Maximiliano & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2021. "Commodity index risk premium," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    9. Díaz, Juan D. & Hansen, Erwin & Cabrera, Gabriel, 2023. "Gold risk premium estimation with machine learning methods," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    10. Dichtl, Hubert, 2020. "Forecasting excess returns of the gold market: Can we learn from stock market predictions?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    11. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2021. "Gold Against the Machine," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 5-28, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Jump Risk; Tail Risk; Safe Haven; Hedge; Gold;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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