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Modelling Economic Fluctuations In Subsaharan Africa:A Vector Autoregressive Approach

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Author Info
DR. GODWIN CHUKWUDUM NWAOBI (QUANTITATIVE ECONOMIC RESEARCH BUREAU, NIGERIA)

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Abstract

A controversial result of some current research on the real business cycles is the claim that a common stochastic trend(the cumulative effect of permanent shocks to productivity)underlies the bulk of economic fluctuations. If confirmed, this will imply that many other forces have been relatively unimportant over historical business cycles(including the monetary and fiscal policy shocks in traditional macroeconomic analysis). This paper therefore proposes to use a longrun restriction implied by a large class of real business cycle models(identifying permanent productivity shocks as shocks to the common stochastic trends in output, consumption and investment) to provide new evidence on this question(using subsaharan africa as a case study).

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0406008.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0406008

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 17. THIS IS A PROPOSED RESEARCH FOR PROFESSIONAL COMMENTS
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Keywords: REAL BUSINESS CYCLES; LONGRUN RESTRICTION; PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS; INVESTMENT; CONSUMPTION; OUTPUT; STOCHASTIC TREND; SUBSAHARAN AFRICA; FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY; ECONOMIC FLUCTUATION;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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  4. Boswijk, H Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 1995. "Periodic Cointegration: Representation and Inference," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 436-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dr.Godwin Chukwudum Nwaobi, 2004. "Money And Output Interraction In Nigeria," Macroeconomics 0405012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Charnvitayapong, Kovit & Kandil, Magda, 1995. "On the Role of Money in Real Business-Cycle Models," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(12), pages 1187-99, December.
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  10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  13. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1645-60, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  17. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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