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Forecasting Volatility of Turkish Markets: A Comparison of Thin and Thick Models

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Author Info
Ekrem Kilic (Marmara University)

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Abstract

Volatility of financial markets is an important topic for academics, policy makers and market participants. In this study first I summarized several specifications for the conditional variance and also define some methods for combination of these specifications. Then assuming that the squared returns are the benchmark estimate for actual volatility of the day, I compare all of the models with respect to how much efficient they are to mimic the realized volatility. At the same time I used a VaR approach to compare these forecasts. With the help of these analyses I examine if combination of the forecast could outperform the single models.

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/em/papers/0510/0510007.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0510007.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 29 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0510007

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 52
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: volatility; arch; garch; combination; VaR;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Diebold, Francis X, 1988. "Serial Correlation and the Combination of Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 105-11, January.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Peter Pauly, 1986. "Structural change and the combination of forecasts," Special Studies Papers 201, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kilic, Ekrem, 2006. "Violation duration as a better way of VaR model evaluation : evidence from Turkish market portfolio," MPRA Paper 5610, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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