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The Pavlovian response of term rates to Fed announcements

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Selva Demiralp
Òscar Jordà

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Abstract

The traditional view of the monetary transmission mechanism rests on the premise that the Federal Reserve (Fed) controls the level of the federal funds rate via open market operations and the liquidity effect. By contrast, this paper argues that the Fed also manipulates the federal funds rate via public disclosures of the new level of the federal funds rate target and the "announcement effect." We define the announcement effect as the portion of interest rate movements associated with public statements on interest rate targets that do not require conventional open market operations for their support. This paper provides evidence on how the Fed uses the liquidity effect in conjunction with the announcement effect to execute monetary policy. In addition, it investigates the implications of the announcement effect in term structure behavior and the rational expectations hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2001-10.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2001-10

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Keywords: Liquidity (Economics) Federal funds rate Monetary policy

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  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1998. "The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49, pages 149-194, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. James A. Clouse, 1994. "Recent developments in discount window policy," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Nov, pages 965-977.
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Dueker, Michael, 1999. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Qualitative Response Models of Time Series: A Gibbs-Sampling Approach to the Bank Prime Rate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 466-72, October.
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  6. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 2001. "Retail sweep programs and bank reserves, 1994-1999," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 51-72. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect," Working Papers 1998-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Furfine, Craig H., 2000. "Interbank payments and the daily federal funds rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 535-553, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Adrian R. Pagan & John C. Robertson, 1995. "Resolving the liquidity effect," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 33-54. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1995. "Resolving the liquidity effect: commentary," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 55-62. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1998. "Is the Fed being swept out of (monetary) control?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
  13. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1992. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 319-379, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 80-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1994. "An exact likelihood analysis of the multinomial probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 207-240. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2000. "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target," NBER Working Papers 7847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., 1998. "Market reaction to monetary policy nonannouncements," Research Working Paper 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  18. Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Monetary Policy in a World without Money," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 229-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-45, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kevin D. Hoover & Oscar Jorda, . "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Department of Economics 00-05, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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