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Measuring the liquidity effect

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  • James D. Hamilton

Abstract

This paper develops a measure of the immediate effect on the federal funds rate of an open market operation. Because open market operations are often responses to current or anticipated economic developments, there is a serious problem of simultaneous equations bias in measuring this effect. This paper resolves this problem by developing a proxy for the errors the Federal Reserve makes in forecasting the extent to which Treasury operations will add or drain reserves available to private banks. These errors induce fluctuations in bank reserve which have measurable consequences for the federal funds rate. The paper estimates that a daily decline in nonborrowed reserves of $30 million, if sustained for an entire 14-day reserve maintenance period, will cause the federal funds rate to rise by 10 basic points.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 96-06.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Publication status: Published in Monetary Policy: Measurement and Management : a conference (1996: March 1) ; American Economic Review (March 1997, v. 87 no. 1)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:96-06

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Related research

Keywords: Open market operations ; Federal funds market (United States) ; Bank reserves ; Monetary policy - United States;

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