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The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?

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Author Info
Daniel L. Thornton

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Abstract

It is widely believed that the Fed controls the funds rate by altering the degree of pressure in the reserve market through open market operations when it changes its target for the federal funds rate. Recently, however, several economists have suggested that open market operations may not be necessary for controlling the funds rate. Rather, they suggest that the Fed controls the funds rate through open mouth operations. The Fed merely indicates its desire to change the funds rate and the market does the rest. This paper investigates the extent to which the close relationship between the federal funds rate and the federal funds rate target is due to open market or open mouth operations. Finding little evidence to support either the open market or open-mouth hypothesis, the possibility that many target changes represent the endogenous actions of the Fed real shocks and inflation surprises is briefly considered.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1999-022.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Banking and Finance, March 2004, 28, pp.475-98.
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1999-022

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Keywords: Federal funds rate ; Monetary policy ; Open market operations;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1988. "The Information Content of Discount Rate Announcements and Their Effect on Market Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 167-80, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Roberds, William & Runkle, David & Whiteman, Charles H, 1996. "A Daily View of Yield Spreads and Short-Term Interest Rate Movements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 34-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. repec:pal:imfstp:v:45:y:1998:i:4:p:4 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Douglas R. Mudd, 1979. "Did discount rate changes affect the foreign exchange value of the dollar during 1978?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr, pages 20-26. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1987. "Macroeconomic information and stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 131-140, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Marvin Goodfriend, 1987. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Working Paper 87-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Batten, Dallas S. & Thornton, Daniel L., 1984. "Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 279-292, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & R.W. Hafer, 1989. "Interest rates and economic announcements," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 34-46. [Downloadable!]
  11. Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton, 1985. "The discount rate, interest rates and foreign exchange rates: an analysis with daily data," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Feb, pages 22-30. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Thornton, Daniel L., 1989. "The effect of unanticipated money on the money and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 573-587, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Adrian R. Pagan & John C. Robertson, 1995. "Resolving the liquidity effect," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 33-54. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Daniel Thornton & David C. Wheelock, 2000. "A history of the asymmetric policy directive," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 1-16. [Downloadable!]
  17. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 80-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. John C. Robertson & Daniel L. Thornton, 1997. "Using federal funds futures rates to predict Federal Reserve actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 45-53. [Downloadable!]
  19. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  20. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  21. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, . "A model for the federal funds rate target," Department of Economics 99-07, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Smirlock, Michael J & Yawitz, Jess B, 1985. " Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1141-58, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. John B. Taylor, 2001. "Expectations, open market operations, and changes in the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 33-58. [Downloadable!]
  26. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Daniel L. Thornton, 1988. "The borrowed-reserves operating procedures: theory and evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 30-54. [Downloadable!]
  28. Thornton, Daniel L, 2000. "Lifting the Veil of Secrecy from Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Fed's Early Discount Rate Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 155-67, May.
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  29. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Barro, Robert J., 1989. "Interest-rate targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 3-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1988. " The Predictive Power of the Term Structure during Recent Monetary Regimes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 339-56, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Levin, Fred J & Meulendyke, Ann-Marie, 1982. "Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(3), pages 399-403, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Roley, V Vance & Sellon, Gordon H, Jr, 1998. "Monetary Policy Actions, Intervention, and Exchange Rates: A Reexamination of the Empirical Relationships Using Federal Funds Rate Target Data," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 147-77, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2005. "What Happens After the Central Bank of Brazil Increases the Target Interbank Rate by 1%?," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 584, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  2. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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