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Using federal funds futures rates to predict Federal Reserve actions

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Author Info
John C. Robertson
Daniel L. Thornton

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Abstract

The federal funds futures rate naturally embodies the market's expectation of the average behavior of the federal funds rate. But, as John C. Robertson and Daniel L. Thornton explain, analysts cannot attempt to identify Fed policy from the behavior of the federal funds futures rate without making somewhat arbitrary additional assumptions. The authors investigate the predictive accuracy of a rule based on the federal funds futures rate from October 1988 through August 1997 using an assumption that is sufficient for partially identifying when the market is expecting a Fed action but not for predicting the magnitude of the action. Their forecasting rule correctly predicts a target change at the one-month horizon only about one-third of the time. They conclude that more research is needed, especially in light of the FOMC's recent practice of disclosing policy decisions immediately after FOMC meetings.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
Pages: 45-53
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1997:i:nov:p:45-53

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Keywords: Federal funds market (United States) ; Futures ; Monetary policy - United States;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael R. Pakko & David C. Wheelock, 1996. "Monetary policy and financial market expectations: what did they know and when did they know it?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 19-32. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joel T. Krueger & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1995. "The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of Federal Reserve policy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Jong-Il Kim & Lawrence J. Lau, 1996. "The sources of Asian Pacific economic growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 448-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hui S. Chang, 2005. "Estimating the Monetary Policy Reaction Function for Taiwan: A VAR Model," The International Journal of Applied Economics, Department of General Business, Southeastern Louisiana University, vol. 2(1), pages 50-61, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jeff Moore & Richard Austin, 2002. "The behavior of federal funds futures prices over the monetary policy cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 45-61. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thornton, Daniel L., 2000. "The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target : is it open market or open mouth operations?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Martin Hlusek, 2002. "Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes," Working Papers 2002/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kevin Ross, 2003. "Market Predictability of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions: A Comparative Examination," IMF Working Papers 02/233, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo, 2008. "Flexible time series models for subjective distribution estimation with monetary policy in view," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00368356_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., 1998. "Market reaction to monetary policy nonannouncements," Research Working Paper 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. William Poole & Robert H. Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the market's knowledge of monetary policy," Working Papers 2000-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2002. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Kenneth B. Petersen & Vladimir Pozdnyakov, 2008. "Predicting the Fed," Working papers 2008-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Adrienne Kearney & Raymond Lombra, 2003. "Fed funds futures and the news," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(4), pages 330-337, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Brian Sack, 2002. "Extracting the expected path of monetary policy from futures rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Raymond E. Owens & Roy H. Webb, 2001. "Using the federal funds futures market to predict monetary policy actions," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 69-77. [Downloadable!]
  15. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Predicting monetary policy using federal funds future prices," Working Paper Series 85, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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