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Monetary policy: why money matters and interest rates don't

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Daniel L. Thornton

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Abstract

Monetary policy is now conducted by targeting a very short-term interest rate. The Fed and other central banks attempt to control the price level by manipulating aggregate demand by adjusting their interest rate target. At best, money's role is tertiary. Indeed, a few prominent and influential macroeconomists have suggested that money is not essential, or perhaps is irrelevant, for the determination of the price level. Against this backdrop, this paper argues that the essential feature of money is that it guarantees "final payment" and is essential for price determination. It also suggests that the ability of the central banks to control interest rates may be greatly exaggerated.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2008-011.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2008-011

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Keywords: Monetary policy;

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  1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2001. "Identifying the liquidity effect at the daily frequency," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 59-82. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Laidler, 2003. "Monetary Policy without Money: Hamlet without the Ghost," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 20037, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Daniel L. Thornton, 2000. "Money in a theory of exchange," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 35-60. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nelson, Edward, 2007. "Comment on: Samuel Reynard, "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1472-1479, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Models Without Money," NBER Working Papers 8174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2006. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence from Daily Open Market Operations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 901-920, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Charles Goodhart, 2000. "Can Central Banking Survive the IT Revolution?," FMG Special Papers sp125, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1993. "Credit in the macroeconomy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 50-70.
  9. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Edward Nelson, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  12. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," CEPR Discussion Papers 5259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. McCallum, Bennett T., 1981. "Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Friedman, Benjamin M, 2000. "Decoupling at the Margin: The Threat to Monetary Policy from the Electronic Revolution in Banking," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 261-72, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 13325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 2001. "Retail sweep programs and bank reserves, 1994-1999," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 51-72. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect," Working Papers 1998-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Adrian R. Pagan & John C. Robertson, 1995. "Resolving the liquidity effect," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 33-54. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 475-498, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2000. "Decoupling at the Margin: The Threat to Monetary Policy from the Electronic Revolution in Banking," NBER Working Papers 7955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 80-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Thornton, Daniel L., 2005. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2541-2556, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?," Working Papers 2006-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  27. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects," Working Papers 2007-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "Open market operations and the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 549-570. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?," Working Papers 2007-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  31. Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Monetary Policy in a World without Money," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 229-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Mervyn King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57. [Downloadable!]
  33. Kevin Hoover, 2006. "A Neowicksellian in a new classical world: The methodology of michael woodford's Interest and Prices," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 143-149, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L, 2007. "The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value," CEPR Discussion Papers 6445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. Rolnick, Arthur J & Weber, Warren E, 1983. "New Evidence on the Free Banking Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1080-91, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Bennett T. McCallum & Marvin S. Goodfriend, 1987. "Money: Theoretical Analysis of the Demand for Money," NBER Working Papers 2157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Samuel Reynard, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: money, interest rates, and policy stance," Working Paper Series 756, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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