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Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area

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  • Paolo Angelini

    ()
    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the euro-area interbank market. The martingale hypothesis for the Eonia, the reference overnight interest rate, is tested and rejected. Such rejection is a sufficient condition for a liquidity effect, which is then estimated. The magnitude of the effect is found to depend on the perceived degree of persistence of the liquidity shock. At the beginning of the reserve maintenance period a liquidity drain amounting to 3 per cent of required reserves raises the Eonia by 4 basis points, by 13-15 points, by 25 points or more (up to the limits of the official rate corridor, i.e. roughly ± 100 basis points), depending on whether it is expected to be purely temporary, to last at least through the following day or through the rest of the holding period. Non-purely-temporary effects may take place when the liquidity shock has some signaling value for the monetary policy stance; however, little if any evidence of shocks of this kind is found. The liquidity effect is read off the slope of a euro-area-wide demand equation for daily reserves which incorporates the current as well as the expected overnight rate among the regressors. The two elasticities are very similar in absolute value and have opposite signs; this is consistent with the announcement effect, the ability by the central bank to influence the current rate without resorting to open market operations. The area-wide demand curve is retrieved by estimating separate relationships for each of the 11 euro-area national banking systems. Some heterogeneity across the different countries is detected. In particular, in some cases the demand for reserves turns out to be interest rate-inelastic over the holding period, suggesting that there is room for further efficiency improvements.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 451.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_451_02

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Keywords: liquidity effect; announcement effect; overnight; martingale; interbank market;

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References

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  1. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Hugo Rodríguez, 2000. "The daily market for funds in Europe: Has something changed with the EMU?," Economics Working Papers 474, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
  3. Gaspar, Vitor & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2001. "The ECB Monetary Policy Strategy and the Money Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 325-42, October.
  4. Oscar Jorda & Selva Demiralp & Holly Liu & Jeffrey Williams, 2003. "The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data," Working Papers 14, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  5. Simon Gilchrist, 2001. "Identifying the liquidity effect at the daily frequency (commentary)," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 59-82.
  6. Christian Gilles & Pamela A. Labadie & Wilbur John Coleman II., 1996. "A model of the federal funds market," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 337-357.
  7. Demiralp, Selva & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 387-405, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
  2. Benjamin Friedman & Kenneth Kuttner, 2010. "Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  3. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "The execution of monetary policy: a tale of two central banks," Staff Reports 165, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Jens Tapking, 2004. "Multiple equilibrium overnight rates in a dynamic interbank market game," Finance 0409042, EconWPA.
  5. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Stanley Watt & Szabolcs Blazsek, 2009. "The Liquidity and Liquidity Distribution Effects in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 09/228, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Gianfranco A. Vento, 2004. "The Eurosystem operational framework, use of colleteral and liquidity distribution in the euro area: towards a single interbank market?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(228), pages 71-100.
  7. Giuseppe Bruno & Ernesto Maurizio Ordine & Antonio Scalia, 2005. "BanksÂ’ participation in the Eurosystem auctions and money market integration," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 562, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Gianfranco A. Vento, 2004. "The Eurosystem operational framework, use of colleteral and liquidity distribution in the euro area: towards a single interbank market?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(228), pages 71-100.
  9. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2007. "Monetary policy implementation: A European Perspective," Discussion Papers 2007/10, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  10. Livio Stracca & Clara Martin Moss & Livio Stracca, 2004. "Demand and supply in the ECB's main refinancing operations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 94, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  11. Stracca, Livio & Ejerskov, Steen & Martin Moss, Clara, 2003. "How does the ECB allot liquidity in its weekly main refinancing operations? A look at the empirical evidence," Working Paper Series 0244, European Central Bank.

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