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Market reaction to monetary policy nonannouncements

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  • V. Vance Roley
  • Gordon H. Sellon, Jr.
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    Abstract

    This paper examines how Treasury security yields, stock prices, and federal funds futures rates respond on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting dates when expected policy actions do not occur. The empirical results support the existence of nonannouncement effects on short- and intermediate-term yields. In particular, part of an expected policy action, measured using federal funds futures rates, is unwound when the action does not materialize. This partial unwinding is consistent with markets reacting to the surprise by postponing, but not eliminating, the possibility of a future policy action. We also find that only the response of near-term federal funds futures rates is larger after February 1994, when the Federal Reserve began making virtually all of its nonzero changes in the federal funds rate target at FOMC meetings. As a whole, our results suggest that monetary policy decisions can be informative to financial markets even when these decisions do not involve an overt policy action, and they support the view that market expectations of future policy actions are an important determinant of the behavior of interest rates.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 98-06.

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    Date of creation: 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:98-06

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    Keywords: Monetary policy;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Willem Thorbecke, 1998. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 9812009, EconWPA.
    2. Bennett T. McCallum, 1995. "A Semi-Classical Model of Price Level Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 4706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," NBER Working Papers 1296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
    7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1986. "News from the U.S. and Japan: which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Research Working Paper 86-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    10. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi & Leora Klapper, 1997. "Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates," NBER Working Papers 5944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. John B. Carlson & Jean M. McIntire & James B. Thomson, 1995. "Federal funds futures as an indicator of future monetary policy: a primer," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 20-30.
    12. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1987. "Macroeconomic information and stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 131-140, May.
    13. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1983. " The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1323-33, September.
    14. Joel T. Krueger & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1995. "The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of Federal Reserve policy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    15. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
    16. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "Does the Fed's new policy of immediate disclosure affect the market?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 77-88.
    17. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Roley, V Vance & Sellon, Gordon H, Jr, 1998. "Monetary Policy Actions, Intervention, and Exchange Rates: A Reexamination of the Empirical Relationships Using Federal Funds Rate Target Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 147-77, April.
    18. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., 1995. "Monetary policy actions and long-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-89.
    19. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    20. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    21. John C. Robertson & Daniel L. Thornton, 1997. "Using federal funds futures rates to predict Federal Reserve actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 45-53.
    22. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-30, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2004. "A note on the effects of monetary policy surprises on the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-287, April.
    2. Rai, Anoop & Seth, Rama & Mohanty, Sunil K., 2007. "The impact of discount rate changes on market interest rates: Evidence from three European countries and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 905-923, October.
    3. Jorge Sicilia & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    4. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "The Pavlovian response of term rates to Fed announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Antulio N. Bomfim, 2000. "Pre-announcement effects, news, and volatility: monetary policy and the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2003. "The performance of the Euribor futures market: Effficiency and the impact of ECB policy announcements," ZEI Working Papers B 27-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
    7. Tori, Cynthia Royal, 2001. "Federal Open Market Committee meetings and stock market performance," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-4), pages 163-171.
    8. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.

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