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The curious case of Indian agriculture

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  • Banik, Nilanjan
  • Biswas, Basudeb

Abstract

This paper examines association between the cyclical component of agricultural output and rainfall in India. When the cause of food inflation is because of supply shortage driven by inadequate rainfall and poor irrigation facilities, then a contractionary monetary policy may lead to stagflation. Considering agricultural output and rainfall data from four states in India we find evidence in favor of association.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38634.

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Date of creation: 28 Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38634

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Keywords: Agriculture output; Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition; Rainfall; India;

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  1. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  2. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Technical Reports 78, Bank of Canada.
  3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer.
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