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The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time

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  • Stephane Dees

    ()

  • Arthur Saint-Guilhem

    ()

Abstract

This paper aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. The emergence of large economic players, like China, is likely to have weakened the role of the U.S. economy as a driver of global growth. Based on a Global VAR modelling approach, this paper shows first that the transmission of U.S. cyclical developments to the rest of the world tends to fluctuate over time but remains large overall. Second, although the size of the spill-overs might have decreased in the most recent periods, the effects of changes in U.S. economic activity seem to have become more persistent. Actually, the increasing economic integration at the world level is likely to have fostered second-round and third-market effects, making U.S. cyclical developments more global. Finally, the slightly decreasing role of the U.S. has been accompanied by an increasing importance of third players. Regional integration might have played a significant role by giving more weights to non-U.S. trade partners in the sensitivity of the various economies to their international environment. JEL Classification: E32, E37, F41

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 573-591

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:41:y:2011:i:3:p:573-591

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Related research

Keywords: International transmission of shocks; Business cycle; Global VAR (GVAR); E32; E37; F41;

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References

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  1. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "The changing international transmission of financial shocks: evidence from a classical time-varying FAVAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Sandra Eickmeier, 2010. "Analyse der Uebertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(5), pages 571-600, October.
  3. Dées, Stéphane & Saint-Guilhem, Arthur, 2009. "The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time," Working Paper Series 1034, European Central Bank.
  4. Lance Kent, 2014. "Linkages, Transmission, and the Evolution of International Business Cycles," Working Papers 149, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  5. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Theory and Practice of GVAR Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 4807, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.
  7. Angela Abbate & Luca De Benedictis & Giorgio Fagiolo & Lucia Tajoli, 2012. "The International Trade Network in Space and Time," LEM Papers Series 2012/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  8. Madura, Jeff & Ngo, Thanh & Viale, Ariel M., 2011. "Convergent synergies in the global market for corporate control," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2468-2478, September.
  9. Sandra Eickmeier & Tim Ng, 2009. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  10. Marco Duenas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2011. "Modeling the International-Trade Network: A Gravity Approach," Papers 1112.2867, arXiv.org.
  11. Frigyes F Heinz & Yan Sun, 2014. "Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 14/17, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Alexander Chudik & Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Theory and Practice of GVAR Modeling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1408, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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