Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I Versus Phase II Equilibrium?
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the carbon price during the two phases of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). More specifically, relying on daily EU allowance futures contracts, we test whether the carbon price drivers identified for Phase I still hold for Phase II and evolve toward a long-run relationship. Using cointegration techniques and accounting for the 2006 structural break on the carbon market, we show that while a cointegrating relationship exists for both phases of the EU ETS, the nature of this equilibrium relationship is different across the two subperiods, with an increasing role of fundamentals in Phase II. Deriving equilibrium values, we show that the carbon price tends to be undervalued since the end of 2009.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2011-09.
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
EU ETS; CARBON PRICE; ENERGY PRICES; COINTEGRATION;
Other versions of this item:
- Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 1106, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2011-05-07 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2011-05-07 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2011-05-07 (Microeconomic European Issues)
- NEP-MIC-2011-05-07 (Microeconomics)
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