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Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I Versus Phase II Equilibrium?

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  • Anna Creti
  • Pierre-André Jouvet
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the carbon price during the two phases of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). More specifically, relying on daily EU allowance futures contracts, we test whether the carbon price drivers identified for Phase I still hold for Phase II and evolve toward a long-run relationship. Using cointegration techniques and accounting for the 2006 structural break on the carbon market, we show that while a cointegrating relationship exists for both phases of the EU ETS, the nature of this equilibrium relationship is different across the two subperiods, with an increasing role of fundamentals in Phase II. Deriving equilibrium values, we show that the carbon price tends to be undervalued since the end of 2009.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2011-09.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-09

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Keywords: EU ETS; CARBON PRICE; ENERGY PRICES; COINTEGRATION;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fagiani, Riccardo & Hakvoort, Rudi, 2014. "The role of regulatory uncertainty in certificate markets: A case study of the Swedish/Norwegian market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 608-618.
  2. Vicente Medina Martínez & Ángel Pardo Tornero & Roberto Pascual, 2012. "The timeline of trading fricions in the European Carbon Market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  3. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ma, Shujiao & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yiming, 2014. "Modelling the dynamics of European carbon futures price: A Zipf analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 372-380.
  4. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-001 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  5. Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Toppinen, Anne, 2013. "Impact of the carbon price on the integrating European electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1236-1251.
  6. Kimmo Ollikka & Piia Aatola & Markku Ollikainen, 2012. "Informational Efficiency of the EU ETS market ? a study of price predictability and profitable trading," Working Papers 28, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  7. Gary D. Libecap, 2013. "Addressing Global Environmental Externalities: Transaction Costs Considerations," NBER Working Papers 19501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
  9. Harrison Fell & Beat Hintermann & Herman R. J. Vollebergh, 2013. "Carbon Content of Electricity Futures in Phase II of the EU ETS," CESifo Working Paper Series 4367, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "Carbon Financial Markets: a time-frequency analysis of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 03/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  11. Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria, 2014. "Dynamics of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 02/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  12. Vincent Bertrand, 2013. "Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with non-equally efficient power plants," Working Papers 1309, Chaire Economie du Climat.

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