IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jbuscr/v18y2022i2d10.1007_s41549-022-00068-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bond Yields Movement Similarities and Synchronization in the G7: A Time–Frequency Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • João Martins

    (University of Minho (NIPE)
    United Nations University (UNU-EGOV))

Abstract

This paper uses wavelet coherencies and a wavelet dissimilarity index to study the similarities and synchronization of government bond yield movements in the G7. Using monthly data, going from January 1980 to September 2018, the analysis finds a high degree of synchronization among the seven government bond yield series. The Great Recession is associated with breaks in several time–frequency regions of statistically significant coherencies. The European convergence process and the introduction of the euro are associated with more statistically significant time–frequency regions of high coherencies among the euro area countries. Language, economic, and political factors appear to exert influence on the degree of synchronization between countries, as a higher level of synchronization is observed amongst the anglophone countries and the euro area countries.

Suggested Citation

  • João Martins, 2022. "Bond Yields Movement Similarities and Synchronization in the G7: A Time–Frequency Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 189-214, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:18:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-022-00068-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-022-00068-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41549-022-00068-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41549-022-00068-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201508041349 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "The great synchronization of international trade collapse," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 608-614.
    3. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Money stock versus monetary base in time–frequency exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Jun‐Hyung Ko & Yoshito Funashima, 2019. "On the Sources of the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle across Time and Frequencies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 889-910, August.
    5. Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2017. "The political determinants of government bond holdings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 1-21.
    6. David Hudgins & Patrick M. Crowley, 2019. "Stress-Testing U.S. Macroeconomic Policy: A Computational Approach Using Stochastic and Robust Designs in a Wavelet-Based Optimal Control Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1509-1546, April.
    7. Flor, Michael A. & Klarl, Torben, 2017. "On the cyclicity of regional house prices: New evidence for U.S. metropolitan statistical areas," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 134-156.
    8. Vacha, Lukas & Barunik, Jozef, 2012. "Co-movement of energy commodities revisited: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 241-247.
    9. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ihnatov, Iulian & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2014. "Analyzing time–frequency relationship between interest rate, stock price and exchange rate through continuous wavelet," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 227-238.
    10. António Rua & Artur Silva Lopes, 2015. "Cohesion within the euro area and the US: A wavelet-based view," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(2), pages 63-76.
    11. Gallegati Marco & Gallegati Mauro, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, September.
    12. H. Wong & Wai-Cheung Ip & Zhongjie Xie & Xueli Lui, 2003. "Modelling and forecasting by wavelets, and the application to exchange rates," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 537-553.
    13. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "International macroeconomic dynamics: A factor vector autoregressive approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 432-444, March.
    14. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2015. "Business cycle and financial cycle spillovers in the G7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 154-162.
    15. Lindenberg, Nannette & Westermann, Frank, 2012. "Common trends and common cycles among interest rates of the G7-countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1125-1140.
    16. Antonakakis, N. & Badinger, H., 2016. "Economic growth, volatility, and cross-country spillovers: New evidence for the G7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 352-365.
    17. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    18. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B. & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Interest rate spreads and output: A time scale decomposition analysis using wavelets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 283-290.
    19. Funashima, Yoshito, 2016. "Governmentally amplified output volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 469-478.
    20. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
    21. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hallett, Andrew Hughes, 2018. "What causes business cycles to elongate, or recessions to intensify?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 338-349.
    22. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    23. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    24. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M.F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2013. "Convergence of the Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Eurozone: A Time-Frequency Analysis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 377-398, May.
    25. Boryana Bogdanova & Ivan Ivanov, 2016. "A wavelet-based approach to the analysis and modelling of financial time series exhibiting strong long-range dependence: the case of Southeast Europe," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 655-673, March.
    26. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2017. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 165-186.
    27. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Suresh K.G., & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Causality between consumer price and producer price: Evidence from Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 432-440.
    28. Jorg Kramer, 1998. "Determinants of the expected real long-term interest rates in the G7-countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 279-285, February.
    29. Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohammad Iqbal Tahir, 2015. "Analyzing time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 690-704, April.
    30. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Linda S. Goldberg & Deborah Leonard, 2003. "What moves sovereign bond markets? The effects of economic news on U.S. and German yields," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Sep).
    32. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    33. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2012. "The synchronization of GDP growth in the G7 during US recessions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 7-11, January.
    34. Funashima, Yoshito, 2017. "Time-varying leads and lags across frequencies using a continuous wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 24-28.
    35. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma, 2014. "Co-movements of GCC emerging stock markets: New evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 421-431.
    36. Ramsey, J.B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Working Papers 02-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    37. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    39. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2015. "Stock returns and inflation in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 23-31.
    40. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Faridul Islam, 2015. "Time–frequency relationship between share prices and exchange rates in India: Evidence from continuous wavelets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 699-714, March.
    42. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Căpraru, Bogdan & Ihnatov, Iulian & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2017. "The relationship between exchange rates and interest rates in a small open emerging economy: The case of Romania," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 261-274.
    43. Ferrer, Román & Bolós, Vicente J. & Benítez, Rafael, 2016. "Interest rate changes and stock returns: A European multi-country study with wavelets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    44. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2013. "Oil prices and the macroeconomy reconsideration for Germany: Using continuous wavelet," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 636-642.
    45. Cascio, Iolanda Lo, 2015. "A wavelet analysis of US fiscal sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 33-37.
    46. Selcuk Bayraci & Sercan Demiralay & Hatice Gaye Gencer, 2018. "Stock†Bond Co†Movements And Flight†To†Quality In G7 Countries: A Time†Frequency Analysis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 29-49, January.
    47. Patrick M. Crowley & David Hudgins, 2018. "What is the right balance between US monetary and fiscal policy? Explorations using simulated wavelet-based optimal tracking control," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1537-1568, December.
    48. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2017. "Wavelet-based monetary and fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 206-231.
    49. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Wavelet variance and correlation analyses of output in G7 countries," Macroeconomics 0512017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November.
    51. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
    52. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni- And Bivariate Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 344-375, April.
    53. Liow, Kim Hiang, 2015. "Volatility spillover dynamics and relationship across G7 financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 328-365.
    54. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai & Andries, Alin Marius, 2013. "Decomposing time-frequency relationship between producer price and consumer price indices in Romania through wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 151-159.
    55. Kurowski, Łukasz & Rogowicz, Karol, 2018. "Are business and credit cycles synchronised internally or externally?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 124-141.
    56. Iolanda Lo Cascio, 2013. "Decline In Us Output Growth Volatility: A Wavelet Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(2), pages 226-242, March.
    57. Abid, Fathi & Kaffel, Bilel, 2018. "Time–frequency wavelet analysis of the interrelationship between the global macro assets and the fear indexes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1028-1045.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Brinca, Pedro & Gudjonsson, Haukur & Soares, Joana, 2015. "Optimal currency area and business cycle synchronization across U.S. states," MPRA Paper 62125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
    3. Erdost Torun & Afife Duygu Ayhan Akdeniz & Erhan Demireli & Simon Grima, 2022. "Long-Term US Economic Growth and the Carbon Dioxide Emissions Nexus: A Wavelet-Based Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni- And Bivariate Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 344-375, April.
    5. Abid, Fathi & Kaffel, Bilel, 2018. "Time–frequency wavelet analysis of the interrelationship between the global macro assets and the fear indexes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1028-1045.
    6. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "On the higher-order moment interdependence of stock and commodity markets: A wavelet coherence analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-151.
    7. Funashima Yoshito, 2021. "Time–Frequency Regression," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 21-32, January.
    8. Funashima, Yoshito, 2017. "Time-varying leads and lags across frequencies using a continuous wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 24-28.
    9. Gandjon Fankem, Gislain Stéphane & Fouda Mbesa, Lucien Cédric, 2023. "Business cycle synchronization and African monetary union: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Bekiros Stelios & Nguyen Duc Khuong & Uddin Gazi Salah & Sjö Bo, 2015. "Business cycle (de)synchronization in the aftermath of the global financial crisis: implications for the Euro area," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 609-624, December.
    11. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2019. "The time-frequency co-movement of Asian effective exchange rates: A wavelet approach with daily data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 131-148.
    12. Chakrabarty, Anindya & De, Anupam & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Dubey, Rameshwar, 2015. "Investment horizon heterogeneity and wavelet: Overview and further research directions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 45-61.
    13. Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
    14. Kurowski, Łukasz & Rogowicz, Karol, 2018. "Are business and credit cycles synchronised internally or externally?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 124-141.
    15. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Nasreen, Samia & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between international prices of energy, food, industry, agriculture and metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2016. "Causality in Continuous Wavelet Transform Without Spectral Matrix Factorization: Theory and Application," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(3), pages 321-340, March.
    17. Firouzi, Shahrokh & Wang, Xiangning, 2021. "The interrelationship between order flow, exchange rate, and the role of American economic news," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Patrick M. Crowley & David Hudgins, 2022. "Monetary policy objectives and economic outcomes: What can we learn from a wavelet‐based optimal control approach?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(2), pages 144-170, March.
    19. Mustapha Olalekan Ojo & Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "A Time-Frequency Analysis of Sovereign Debt Contagion in Europe," NIPE Working Papers 11/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    20. Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union," Working Papers IES 2015/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    G7; Government bond yields; Synchronization; Wavelet coherency; Wavelet dissimilarity index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • E49 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Other
    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:18:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-022-00068-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.