IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v44y2016icp1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest rate changes and stock returns: A European multi-country study with wavelets

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrer, Román
  • Bolós, Vicente J.
  • Benítez, Rafael

Abstract

This paper investigates the linkage between changes in 10-year government bond yields and stock returns for the major European countries in the time-frequency domain by using a number of cross-wavelet tools in the framework of the continuous wavelet transform, mainly the wavelet coherence and phase-difference. The results reveal that the degree of connection between 10-year bond rate movements and stock returns differs considerably among countries and also varies over time and depending on the time horizon considered. In particular, the UK shows the greatest interdependence between long-term interest rates and equity returns across time and frequencies, while the relationship is much weaker for several peripheral European countries such as Portugal, Ireland and Greece. The highest level of connection is observed for most countries since the onset of the recent global financial crisis. In addition, the significant linkage is mainly concentrated at investment horizons from one to 2years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrer, Román & Bolós, Vicente J. & Benítez, Rafael, 2016. "Interest rate changes and stock returns: A European multi-country study with wavelets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:44:y:2016:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2016.03.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056016000472
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2016.03.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mojisola Olugbode & Ahmed El-Masry & John Pointon, 2014. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Exposure of UK Industries Using First-order Autoregressive Exponential GARCH-in-mean (EGARCH-M) Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(4), pages 409-464, July.
    2. Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Peter Oertmann* & Christel Rendu & Heinz Zimmermann, 2000. "Interest Rate Risk of European Financial Corporations," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 6(4), pages 459-478, December.
    4. Beverly Hirtle, 1997. "Derivatives, Portfolio Composition, and Bank Holding Company Interest Rate Risk Exposure," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 243-266, October.
    5. Jammazi, Rania, 2012. "Cross dynamics of oil-stock interactions: A redundant wavelet analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 750-777.
    6. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart, 2011. "Investigating sources of unanticipated exposure in industry stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1128-1142, May.
    7. Robert W. Faff & Allan Hodgson & Michael L. Kremmer, 2005. "An Investigation of the Impact of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Volatility on Australian Financial Sector Stock Return Distributions," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5‐6), pages 1001-1031, June.
    8. Flannery, Mark J & James, Christopher M, 1984. "The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on the Common Stock Returns of Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1141-1153, September.
    9. Prasad, Anita Mehra & Rajan, Murli, 1995. "The role of exchange and interest risk in equity valuation: A comparative study of international stock markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 457-472, December.
    10. Amaresh Das, 2005. "Do stock prices and interest rates possess a common trend?," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 71(4), pages 383-390.
    11. Sweeney, Richard J & Warga, Arthur D, 1986. "The Pricing of Interest-Rate Risk: Evidence from the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 393-410, June.
    12. Jiang, Chun & Chang, Tsangyao & Li, Xiao-Lin, 2015. "Money growth and inflation in China: New evidence from a wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-261.
    13. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Gold and exchange rates: Downside risk and hedging at different investment horizons," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 267-279.
    14. V. Alaganar & Ramaprasad Bhar, 2003. "An international study of causality-in-variance: Interest rate and financial sector returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 39-55, March.
    15. Gallegati, Marco, 2008. "Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3061-3074, February.
    16. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    17. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2008. "Estimating banks' equity duration: a panel cointegration approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1173-1180.
    18. Söhnke Bartram, 2002. "The Interest Rate Exposure of Nonfinancial Corporations," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 6(1), pages 101-125.
    19. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal, 1998. "Sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate: A GARCH-M model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 535-563, May.
    20. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Suresh K.G., & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Causality between consumer price and producer price: Evidence from Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 432-440.
    21. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    22. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    23. Nikiforos Laopodis, 2010. "Dynamic linkages between monetary policy and the stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 271-293, October.
    24. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Wavelet-based evidence of the impact of oil prices on stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 145-176.
    25. Hacker, R. Scott & Karlsson, Hyunjoo Kim & Månsson, Kristofer, 2014. "An investigation of the causal relations between exchange rates and interest rate differentials using wavelets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 321-329.
    26. Ramsey, James B. & Lampart, Camille, 1998. "Decomposition Of Economic Relationships By Timescale Using Wavelets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 49-71, March.
    27. Amaresh DAS, 2005. "Do stock prices and interest rates possess a common trend?," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2005042, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    28. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni- And Bivariate Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 344-375, April.
    29. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai & Andries, Alin Marius, 2013. "Decomposing time-frequency relationship between producer price and consumer price indices in Romania through wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 151-159.
    30. Gençay, Ramazan & Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon J., 2001. "An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796708.
    31. Cifter Atilla & Ozun Alper, 2008. "Estimating the Effects of Interest Rates on Share Prices in Turkey Using a Multi-Scale Causality Test," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 68-79, April.
    32. E. Dinenis & S. K. Staikouras, 1998. "Interest rate changes and common stock returns of financial institutions: evidence from the UK," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 113-127.
    33. Mohamed Essaied Hamrita & Abdelkader Trifi, 2011. "The Relationship between Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price: A Wavelet Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 220-228.
    34. Marc-Gregor Czaja & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2009. "Interest rate risk of German financial institutions: the impact of level, slope, and curvature of the term structure," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 1-26, July.
    35. Kasman, Saadet & Vardar, Gülin & Tunç, Gökçe, 2011. "The impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on banks' stock returns and volatility: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1328-1334, May.
    36. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis, 2007. "On the relationship between changes in stock prices and bond yields in the G7 countries: Wavelet analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 167-179, April.
    37. Chan, Kam C. & Norrbin, Stefan C. & Lai, Pikki, 1997. "Are stock and bond prices collinear in the long run?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-201.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zaghum Umar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Román Ferrer & Francisco Jareño, 2018. "Does Shariah compliance make interest rate sensitivity of Islamic equities lower? An industry level analysis under different market states," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4500-4521, September.
    2. Selcuk Bayraci & Sercan Demiralay & Hatice Gaye Gencer, 2018. "Stock†Bond Co†Movements And Flight†To†Quality In G7 Countries: A Time†Frequency Analysis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 29-49, January.
    3. Jammazi, Rania & Ferrer, Román & Jareño, Francisco & Hammoudeh, Shawkat M., 2017. "Main driving factors of the interest rate-stock market Granger causality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 260-280.
    4. Laura Ferrando & Román Ferrer & Francisco Jareño, 2017. "Interest Rate Sensitivity of Spanish Industries: A Quantile Regression Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85(2), pages 212-242, March.
    5. Román Ferrer & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Adrián Maizonada, 2019. "Nonlinear and extreme dependence between long-term sovereign bond yields and the stock market: A quantile-on-quantile analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 969-981.
    6. Aloui Mouna & Jarboui Anis, 2017. "Stock Market, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risk Effects on non Financial Stock Returns During the Financial Crisis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(3), pages 898-915, September.
    7. Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2014. "Interest rate risk and the creation of the Monetary Policy Committee: Evidence from banks’ and life insurance companies’ stocks in the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 45-67.
    8. Mojisola Olugbode & Ahmed El-Masry & John Pointon, 2014. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Exposure of UK Industries Using First-order Autoregressive Exponential GARCH-in-mean (EGARCH-M) Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(4), pages 409-464, July.
    9. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity prices since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," MPRA Paper 76542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity returns since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 205-225.
    11. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme & Emmanuel Sonyo & Godwin Ahiase, 2019. "Time Series Analysis of Interest Rates Volatility and Stock Returns in Ghana," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 89-102, November.
    12. Gloria M. Soto Pacheco & Cristóbal González & Laura Ballester & Román Ferrer, 2009. "Determinants of interest rate exposure of Spanish banking industry," Working Papers. Serie EC 2009-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    13. Wen-Yi Chen, 2016. "Health progress and economic growth in the USA: the continuous wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 831-855, May.
    14. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul & Easton, Steve, 2014. "Dynamic correlation analysis of spill-over effects of interest rate risk and return on Australian and US financial firms," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 378-396.
    15. Costa, Antonio & da Silva, Cristiano & Matos, Paulo, 2022. "The Brazilian financial market reaction to COVID-19: A wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 13-29.
    16. Caraiani, Petre, 2015. "Estimating DSGE models across time and frequency," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 33-49.
    17. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2016. "Are Thai Equity Index Returns Sensitive to Interest and Exchange Rate Risks?," MPRA Paper 71602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Bekiros Stelios & Muzaffar Ahmed T. & Uddin Gazi S. & Vidal-García Javier, 2017. "Money supply and inflation dynamics in the Asia-Pacific economies: a time-frequency approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 1-12, June.
    19. Moya-Martínez, Pablo & Ferrer-Lapeña, Román & Escribano-Sotos, Francisco, 2014. "Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 280-290.
    20. Aloui Mouna & Jarboui Anis, 2016. "Market, interest rate, and exchange rate risk effects on financial stock returns during the financial crisis: AGARCH-M approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1125332-112, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Stock returns; Wavelets; Wavelet coherence; Phase-difference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:44:y:2016:i:c:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.