Investigating sources of unanticipated exposure in industry stock returns
AbstractThis paper investigates the sources of both foreign exchange rate and interest rate exposure of industry level portfolios in the G7, decomposing exposure into cash flow and discount rate effects. Initial examination of the degree of exposure on industry returns produces results consistent with the prior literature: that there is little evidence of exchange rate exposure in most industries - the exchange rate exposure puzzle. However, rather than relying solely on the sensitivity of industry returns, we examine the cash flow sensitivity to foreign exchange exposure, of primary interest to firm managers. Critically, decomposing the exposure into cash flow and discount rate components unlocks the exact extent and nature of exposure. Our results show industries have significant cash flow and discount rate exposures. These exposures increase with the level of trade openness and the spread between permanent cash flow exposure and transitory discount rate exposure widens.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.
Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf
Foreign exchange Exposure Interest rates Stock returns International finance;
Other versions of this item:
- Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde, 2010. "Investigating Sources of Unanticipated Exposure in Industry Stock Returns," Working Papers 201001, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Madura, Jeff & Zarruk, Emilio R, 1995. "Bank Exposure to Interest Rate Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, Spring.
- Kim, Young Sang & Mathur, Ike & Nam, Jouahn, 2006. "Is operational hedging a substitute for or a complement to financial hedging?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 834-853, September.
- John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002.
"Bad Beta, Good Beta,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1971, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," NBER Working Papers 9509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2016, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Vuolteenaho, Tuomo & Campbell, John, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," Scholarly Articles 3122489, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Ammer & Jon Wongswan, 2007.
"Cash Flows and Discount Rates, Industry and Country Effects and Co-Movement in Stock Returns,"
The Financial Review,
Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 211-226, 05.
- John Ammer & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "Cash flows and discount rates, industry and country effects, and co-movement in stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 818, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2001.
"A Re-Examination of Exchange Rate Exposure,"
NBER Working Papers
8128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chow, Edward H & Lee, Wayne Y & Solt, Michael E, 1997. "The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 105-23, January.
- Gao, Ting, 2000. "Exchange rate movements and the profitability of U.S. multinationals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 117-134, February.
- Kathryn M.E Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2000.
"Trade and Exposure,"
466, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Christos Pantzalis & Betty J Simkins & Paul A Laux, 2001. "Operational Hedges and the Foreign Exchange Exposure of U.S. Multinational Corporations," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 793-812, December.
- Markwat, T.D. & Kole, H.J.W.G. & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2008.
"Contagion as Domino Effect in Global Stock Markets,"
ERS-2008-071-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
- Markwat, Thijs & Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Contagion as a domino effect in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1996-2012, November.
- Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Jiang, Cao, 2009. "Does multinationality matter? Implications of operational hedging for the exchange risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1973-1982, November.
- Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2009. "The effect of exchange rate variability on US shareholder wealth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1963-1972, November.
- Campbell, John Y, 1991.
"A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
- Sohnke M. Bartram & G. Andrew Karolyi, 2002.
"The Impact of the Introduction of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposures,"
0207005, EconWPA, revised 16 Sep 2002.
- Bartram, Sohnke M. & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "The impact of the introduction of the Euro on foreign exchange rate risk exposures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 519-549, October.
- Bartram, Sohnke M. & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "The Impact of the Introduction of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposures," Working Paper Series 2005-3, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Chue, Timothy K. & Cook, David, 2008. "Emerging market exchange rate exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1349-1362, July.
- Sohnke M. Bartram, 2002.
"Linear and Nonlinear Foreign Exchange Rate Exposures of German Nonfinancial Corporations,"
- Bartram, Sohnke M., 2004. "Linear and nonlinear foreign exchange rate exposures of German nonfinancial corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 673-699, June.
- Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Minton, Bernadette, 2009.
"Resolving the Exposure Puzzle: The Many Facets of Exchange Rate Exposure,"
14041, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Minton, Bernadette A., 2010. "Resolving the exposure puzzle: The many facets of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 148-173, February.
- Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
- Allayannis, George & Ihrig, Jane, 2001. "Exposure and Markups," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 805-35.
- Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Kim, Yong-Cheol, 2003. "The Asian exposure of U.S. firms: Operational and risk management strategies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 121-138, April.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-45, July.
- Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Elyasiani, Elyas & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1992. "The sensitivity of bank stock returns to market, interest and exchange rate risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 983-1004, September.
- Gordon M. Bodnar & M.H. Franco Wong, 2003. "Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Issues in Model Structure," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(1), Spring.
- Pritamani, Mahesh D. & Shome, Dilip K. & Singal, Vijay, 2004. "Foreign exchange exposure of exporting and importing firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1697-1710, July.
- Jongmoo Choi & Elyas Elyasiani, 1997. "Derivative Exposure and the Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risks of U.S. Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 267-286, October.
- Elaine Hutson & Simon Stevenson, 2010. "Openness, hedging incentives and foreign exchange exposure: A firm-level multi-country study," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(1), pages 105-122, January.
- Bartram, Söhnke M., 2007.
"What Lies Beneath: Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure, Hedging and Cash Flows,"
6661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bartram, Söhnke M., 2008. "What lies beneath: Foreign exchange rate exposure, hedging and cash flows," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1508-1521, August.
- Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Foreign exchange risk exposure: Survey and suggestions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 385-410, October.
- Jongmoo Jay Choi & Anita Mehra Prasad, 1995. "Exchange Risk Sensitivity and Its Determinants: A Firm and Industry Analysis of U.S. Multinationals," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), Fall.
- Cai, Yijie & Chou, Ray Yeutien & Li, Dan, 2009. "Explaining international stock correlations with CPI fluctuations and market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2026-2035, November.
- Prasad, Anita Mehra & Rajan, Murli, 1995. "The role of exchange and interest risk in equity valuation: A comparative study of international stock markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 457-472, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.