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Cash flows and discount rates, industry and country effects, and co-movement in stock returns

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Author Info
John Ammer
Jon Wongswan
Abstract

This paper examines the relative importance of global, country-specific, and industry-specific factors in both the cash flow and discount rate components of equity returns between 1995 and 2003. Our framework draws upon previously separate literatures on country versus industry effects and (forward-looking) cash flow versus discount rate components of equity return innovations. We apply the Campbell (1991) decomposition for industry-by-country, all-country, global industry, and world market index returns so we can produce a richer characterization of same-industry and same-country effects in stock returns. Unlike previous equity return decomposition papers, we exploit information in equity analysts' earnings forecasts when projecting future variables from our reduced-form equation systems. Our findings confirm previous research that finds patterns of correlation that suggest a richer underlying structure than just a single common global factor. Furthermore, our results suggest that global, within-country, and same-industry effects are all important for both of the two key components of stock returns: news about future dividends and news about future discount rates. In particular, within-industry covariation in news about future discount rates appears to be just as important as within-country covariation in news about future discount rates. We also find that the idiosyncratic component of cash flow news is more important than the global component, while the reverse is true for news about future discount rates. Our results are broadly consistent with co-movement in future discount rates arising from perceptions of common elements of risk, rather than national market segmentation.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 818.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Keywords: Stock market ; International finance ; Globalization;

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  1. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kristin Forbes & Menzie Chinn, 2003. "A Decomposition Of Global Linkages In Financial Markets Over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1041, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stockman, Alan C., 1988. "Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 387-409. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002. "International diversification strategies," Working Paper 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bondonio, Daniele, 2002. "Evaluating the Employment Impact of Business Incentive Programs in EU Disadvantaged Areas. A case from Northern Italy," P.O.L.I.S. department's Working Papers 27, Department of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marco Del Negro & Robin Brooks, 2003. "Firm-Level Evidence on International Stock Market Comovement," IMF Working Papers 03/55, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ammer, John & Mei, Jianping, 1996. " Measuring International Economic Linkages with Stock Market Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1743-63, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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