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Why do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements using ADRS

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  • G. Andrew Karolyi
  • Rene Stulz

Abstract

This study explores empirically the fundamental factors that influence intraday and overnight cross-country stock return covariances. Using transactions data from the Institute for the Study of Securities Markets (ISSM) from 1988 to 1992, we construct overnight and intraday returns for a portfolio of Japanese stocks using their NYSE-traded American Depository Receipts and a matched- sample portfolio of U.S. stocks. A simple valuation framework is developed to examine cross-country correlations of returns and to discriminate between competitive and global information shocks to future expected and unexpected dividends and discount rates. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news announcements, shocks to the yen/dollar foreign exchange rate and Treasury bill returns and industry effects have no measurable influence on U.S. and Japanese return correlations. However, large shocks to broad-based market indices (Nikkei Stock Average and Standard and Poors 500 Stock Index) positively impact both the magnitude and persistence of the return correlations. The implications for international diversification strategies are discussed.

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Paper provided by Ohio State University in its series Research in Financial Economics with number 9501.

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Handle: RePEc:wop:ohsrfe:9501

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  1. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  2. K.C. Chan & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 1992. "Global Financial Markets and the Risk Premium on U.S. Equity," NBER Working Papers 4074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 3790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bae, Kee-Hong & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1995. "Good news, band news and international spilovers of stock return volatility between Japan and the U.S," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 144-144, May.
  5. Hamao, Yasushi & Campbell, John, 1992. "Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Scholarly Articles 3207694, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Griffin, John M. & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1998. "Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 351-373, December.
  8. Wang, Jiang & Grossman, Sanford & Campbell, John, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3128710, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  12. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
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  16. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
  17. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  18. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
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  20. Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  21. Giorgio De Santis & Bruno Gerard, 1995. "Time-varying risk and international portfolio diversification with contagious bear markets," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 99, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  22. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  23. Solnik, Bruno, 1993. "The performance of international asset allocation strategies using conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 33-55, June.
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