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Do Oil Prices Matter? The Case of a Small Open Economy

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Author Info

  • Joao Tovar Jalles

    (Faculty of Economics and Politics, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

This paper empirically evaluates the impact and effect of oil price fluctuations and shocks on French aggregate economic performance, industrial production index and inflation rate. Our methodology makes use of a multivariate VAR approach to analyse the stability and magnitude of this system by adopting different oil price specifications, together with a robustness check through the estimation of a St.Louis-type equation. We adopt several oil price specifications. Our results show that the main French macroeconomic aggregate variables have become progressively less reactive to oil price fluctuations and that the adjustment towards equilibrium levels have been done increasingly faster.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for AEF in its journal Annals of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 65-87

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Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2009:v:10:i:1:p:65-87

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Related research

Keywords: Oil price fluctuations; Multivariate VAR; Causality; Impulse Response; St.Louis Equation;

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References

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  1. Juncal Cuñado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2001. "Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries," Working Papers 01-02, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
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  7. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-77, November.
  8. Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," CEPR Discussion Papers 4496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
  10. Robalo, Pedro Brito & Salvado, João Cotter, 2008. "Oil price shocks and the Portuguese economy since the 1970s," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp529, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
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  13. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  16. Eastwood, Robert K, 1992. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 403-25, July.
  17. Wilcox, James A, 1983. "Why Real Interest Rates Were So Low in the 1970's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 44-53, March.
  18. Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-61, May.
  19. John Burbidge & Alan Harrison, 1982. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," School of Economics Working Papers 1982-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
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  23. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Liu, Luke, 2011. "Securitization and moral hazard: Does security price matter?," MPRA Paper 35004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Gaowang Wang & Heng-fu Zou, 2012. "Economic Globalization, Mercantilism and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 548, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  3. Hasanat Shah, Syed & Li, Jun Jiang & Hasanat, Hafsa, 2013. "The impact of Oil Price and Oil Price Fluctuation on Growth Exports and Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 52560, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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