IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2013-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Heterogenous Agent Foundation for Tests of Asset Price Bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Vipin Arora
  • Shuping Shi

Abstract

We provide heterogenous agent foundations for regime-switching tests of asset price bubbles, and illustrate by applying the models to historical U.S. stock market data. While the tests remain unchanged, we show the specification of regimes can be based on the beliefs of investors that come from an underlying heterogenous agent model. This allows consideration of alternative specifications for investor beliefs, straightforward interpretation of extensions to more than three regimes, and added exibility in determining the evolution of beliefs. Our empirical example shows that this can lead to results which differ from traditional regime-switching models.

Suggested Citation

  • Vipin Arora & Shuping Shi, 2013. "A Heterogenous Agent Foundation for Tests of Asset Price Bubbles," CAMA Working Papers 2013-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-05/35_2013_arora_shi.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
    2. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
    3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    4. Shi, Shuping & Arora, Vipin, 2012. "An application of models of speculative behaviour to oil prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 469-472.
    5. Maldonado, Wilfredo L. & Tourinho, Octávio A.F. & Valli, Marcos, 2012. "Exchange rate bubbles: Fundamental value estimation and rational expectations test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1033-1059.
    6. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2005. "A Three-Regime Model of Speculative Behaviour: Modelling the Evolution of the S&P 500 Composite Index," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 767-797, July.
    9. van Norden, Simon, 1996. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-251, May-June.
    10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    11. van Norden, Simon & Schaller, Huntley, 1993. "The Predictability of Stock Market Regime: Evidence from the Toronto Stock Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 505-510, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dirk G Baur & Kristoffer Glover, 2012. "A Gold Bubble?," Working Paper Series 175, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vipin Arora & Shuping Shi, 2016. "Nonlinearities and tests of asset price bubbles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1421-1433, June.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the South African stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-201.
    3. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian perspective," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-75.
    4. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching, and Stock Market Crashes," Econometrics 9502003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Xiaoliang Liu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening, 2013. "Testing for speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity prices: a regime switching approach," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 73(1), pages 179-200, May.
    6. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
    7. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "Fads or bubbles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 335-362.
    9. Wilfredo L. Maldonado & Octávio A. F. Tourinho & Jorge A. B. M. de Abreu, 2014. "Cointegrated Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the Exchange Rate of 'BRICS' Countries," CAMA Working Papers 2014-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    11. KevinJ. Lansing, 2010. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1149-1174, December.
    12. Maldonado, Wilfredo L. & Tourinho, Octávio A.F. & Valli, Marcos, 2012. "Exchange rate bubbles: Fundamental value estimation and rational expectations test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1033-1059.
    13. Matthijs Lof, 2015. "Rational Speculators, Contrarians, and Excess Volatility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(8), pages 1889-1901, August.
    14. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    15. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
    16. Taipalus, Katja, 2006. "Bubbles in the Finnish and US equities markets," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 35/2006.
    17. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2015. "Speculative behaviour and oil price predictability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 128-136.
    18. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.
    19. repec:zbw:bofism:2006_035 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    21. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogenous agents; asset price; bubble; rational; regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.