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Poverty, Government Transfers, and the Business Cycle: Evidence for the United States

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Author Info
Dierk Herzer () (Ibero-Amerika Institut der Universität Göttingen, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität, Frankfurt/M.)
Rainer Klump (Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt/Main)

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Abstract

We examine the impact of government transfers and the business cycle on poverty in the United States in the context of a poverty function that includes the official poverty rate, three types of government transfers, real wages, the number of female-headed families, and a business cycle variable. Using cointegration techniques, we find ─ contrary to most previous studies ─ that government transfer programs play an important poverty-reducing role. In addition, the findings suggest that the business cycle is one of the key variables in explaining poverty in the US. Furthermore, the empirical results show that the size and composition of public transfer payments change over the business cycle. We also find poverty to have a significant effect on government transfers, the business cycle, and the structure of households.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research in its series Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers with number 141.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 08 Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:got:iaidps:141

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  1. Dierk Herzer & Felicitas Nowak-Lehnmann D., 2006. "What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1825-1838, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Becker, Gary S, 1988. "Family Economics and Macro Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 1-13, March.
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  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003. "Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Balke, Nathan S & Slottje, Daniel J, 1993. "Poverty and Change in the Macroeconomy: A Dynamic Macroeconometric Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 117-22, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Walter Enders & Gary A. Hoover, 2003. "The effect of robust growth on poverty: a nonlinear analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1063-1071, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rebecca M. Blank & Alan S. Blinder, 1985. "Macroeconomics, Income Distribution, and Poverty," NBER Working Papers 1567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Richard B. Freeman, 2001. "The Rising Tide Lifts...?," NBER Working Papers 8155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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