Poverty, Government Transfers, and the Business Cycle: Evidence for the United States
AbstractWe examine the impact of government transfers and the business cycle on poverty in the United States in the context of a poverty function that includes the official poverty rate, three types of government transfers, real wages, the number of female-headed families, and a business cycle variable. Using cointegration techniques, we find ─ contrary to most previous studies ─ that government transfer programs play an important poverty-reducing role. In addition, the findings suggest that the business cycle is one of the key variables in explaining poverty in the US. Furthermore, the empirical results show that the size and composition of public transfer payments change over the business cycle. We also find poverty to have a significant effect on government transfers, the business cycle, and the structure of households.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research in its series Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers with number 141.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 08 Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Platz des Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen
Phone: 0049-551-39 81 72
Fax: 0049-551-39 81 73
Web page: http://www.iai.wiwi.uni-goettingen.de
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Dierk HERZER & Rainer KLUMP, 2009. "Poverty, Government Transfers, And The Business Cycle: Evidence For The United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
- I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-06-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2006-06-24 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2006-06-24 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Perron, P., 1994.
"Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables,"
Cahiers de recherche
9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Hilary Hoynes & Marianne Page & Ann Stevens, 2005.
"Poverty in America: Trends and Explanations,"
NBER Working Papers
11681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary A. Hoover & John P. Formby & Hoseong Kim, 2004. "Poverty, Non-White Poverty, And The Sen Index," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(4), pages 543-559, December.
- Gary S. Becker, .
"Family Economics and Macro Behavior,"
University of Chicago - Population Research Center
87-16, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1998.
"Unit Roots, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks,"
NBER Working Papers
6397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003. "Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, 04.
- Ben-David, D. & Lumsdaine, L.R. & Papell, D.H., 1996. "Unit Roots Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks," Papers 33-96, Tel Aviv.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
- Lars Osberg, 2000. "Poverty in Canada and the United States: measurement, trends, and implications," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 847-877, November.
- Balke, Nathan S & Slottje, Daniel J, 1993. "Poverty and Change in the Macroeconomy: A Dynamic Macroeconometric Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 117-22, February.
- Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 1999.
"Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
655, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, 06.
- Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2000. "Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0561, Econometric Society.
- Dierk Herzer & Nowak-Lehnmann Felicitas, 2006. "What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1825-1838.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Rebecca M. Blank & Alan S. Blinder, 1985. "Macroeconomics, Income Distribution, and Poverty," NBER Working Papers 1567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992.
"The power of cointegration tests,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Papell, David H & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2004. "The Uncertain Unit Root in U.S. Real GDP: Evidence with Restricted and Unrestricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 423-27, June.
- Richard B. Freeman, 2001. "The Rising Tide Lifts...?," NBER Working Papers 8155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- L Tkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, J Rgen, 2003. "Transmission Of German Monetary Policy In The Pre-Euro Period," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(05), pages 711-733, November.
- Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
- Walter Enders & Gary Hoover, 2003. "The effect of robust growth on poverty: a nonlinear analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1063-1071.
- James Gwartney & Thomas S. MeCaleb, 1985. "Have Antipoverty Programs Increased Poverty?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 1-16, Spring/Su.
- Magda Kandil & Jeffrey Woods, 2002. "Employment composition and the cyclical behaviour of the aggregate real wage," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 689-708.
- Gary Solon & Robert Barsky & Jonathan A. Parker, 1992.
"Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias,"
NBER Working Papers
4202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Solon, Gary & Barsky, Robert & Parker, Jonathan A, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important Is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25, February.
- Ronald G. Bodkin, 1969. "Real Wages and Cyclical Variations in Employment: A Re-Examination of the Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 2(3), pages 353-374, August.
- Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Jaep).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.