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Estimating Long-Run Relationships between Observed Integrated Variables by Unobserved Component Methods

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Author Info
G. EVERAERT ()

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Abstract

A regression including integrated variables yields spurious results if the residuals contain a unit root. Although the obtained estimates are unreliable, this does not automatically imply that there is no long-run relation between the included variables as the unit root in the residuals may be induced by omitted or unobserved integrated variables. This paper uses an unobserved component model to estimate the partial long-run relation between observed integrated variables. This provides an alternative to standard cointegration analysis. The proposed methodology is described using a Monte Carlo simulation and applied to investigate purchasing-power parity.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 07/452.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:07/452

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Related research
Keywords: Spurious Regression; Cointegration; Unobserved Component Model; PPP.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, . "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2509, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
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