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The transmission of German monetary policy in the pre-Euro period

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  • Lütkepohl, Helmut
  • Wolters, Jürgen

Abstract

A small macroeconomic model is constructed to study the transmission of the monetary policy conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank (DBB) since the middle of the 1970s. For this purpose quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data for the period from 1975 to 1998 are used, that is, the period until the introduction of the Euro is considered. A vector error correction model is constructed for the German monetary sector based on M3, GNP, an inflation rate, a long-term interest rate and a short-term rate which represents the policy variable of the DBB. Moreover, import price inflation is included as an exogenous variable to capture foreign effects. An impulse response analysis highlights the effects of changes in the short-term interest rate and shows the interaction of the main variables of the monetary sector. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2001,87.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200187

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Keywords: Cointegration analysis; impulse response analysis; monetary policy; money demand; structural vector error correction model;

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References

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  1. Jürgen Wolters & Timo Teräsvirta & Helmut Lütkepohl, 1998. "Modeling The Demand For M3 In The Unified Germany," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 399-409, August.
  2. Katarina Juselius, 1998. "Changing monetary transmission mechanisms within the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 455-481.
  3. Juselius, Katarina, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of the Changing Role of the German Bundesbank after 1983," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 791-819, November.
  4. K. Hubrich, 1996. "System estimation of the German money demand - a long-run analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,77, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  5. Benkwitz, Alexander & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 1999. "Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses of German Monetary Systems," CEPR Discussion Papers 2208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March.
  7. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
  8. JØrgen Wolters & Helmut LØtkepohl, 1998. "A money demand system for German M3," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 371-386.
  9. repec:wop:humbsf:2001-5 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "Unit root tests for time series with level shifts: A comparison of different proposals," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,5, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  11. Issing, Otmar, 1997. "Monetary targeting in Germany: The stability of monetary policy and of the monetary system," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 67-79, June.
  12. Michael Scharnagl, 1998. "The stability of German money demand: Not just a myth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 355-370.
  13. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  14. Hansen, Gerd & Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 1996. "Money and Inflation in Germany: A Cointegration Analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 601-16.
  15. Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294.
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Cited by:
  1. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  2. Kai Carstensen, 2003. "Is European Money Demand Still Stable?," Kiel Working Papers 1179, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Oliver Holtemöller, 2003. "Money Stock, Monetary Base and Bank Behavior in Germany, Geldmenge, Geldbasis und Bankenverhalten in Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 223(3), pages 257-278, May.

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