This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany, 1870-2003

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Markus Baltzer
Gerhard Kling

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Our study tries to quantify the predictability of economic growth and links it to the capability of regimes to fight against inflation. A regime with a high persistence of inflation and, hence, low credibility exhibits a high level of predictability of economic growth using the yield curve as indicator. Based on structural VAR models, we evaluate the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany from 1870 to 2003. The period of the Classical Gold Standard exhibited the highest credibility compared to the interwar period, the Bretton Woods and free float era. The reliability of the Bretton Woods agreement deteriorated years before the official breakdown in 1971.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/13504850500461456&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 14 (2007)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 401-404
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:6:p:401-404

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/routledge/13504851.html

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/subscription.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 1999. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 7426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Hans Joachim Voth, 1998. "Inflationary Expectations During Germany's Great Slump," Economics Working Papers 333, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert D. Laurent, 1988. "An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 3-14. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    Other versions:
  7. Burhop, Carsten & Wolff, Guntram B., 2005. "A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product, 1851 1913, and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(03), pages 613-657, September. [Downloadable!]
  8. Peel, David A. & Ioannidis, Christos, 2003. "Empirical evidence on the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and future real output changes when there are changes in policy regimes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 147-152, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All the bibliographic data shown here has been contributed by volunteers, thereby helping to keep this service free.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-5.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.