Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University)

  • Rangan Gupta

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Anandamayee Majumdar

    ()
    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Arizona State University)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

Abstract

This paper provides out-of-sample forecasts of Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using a battery of linear and non-linear forecasting models and univariate and multivariate techniques. The linear models include vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models with and without Bayesian priors. The non-linear models include non-parametric and semi-parametric models, smooth transition autoregressive models and artificial neural network autoregressive models. In addition to gross gaming revenue and taxable sales, we employ recently constructed coincident and leading employment indexes for Nevada’s economy. We conclude that non-linear models generally outperform linear models in forecasting future movements in gross gaming revenue and taxable sales.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://web.unlv.edu/projects/RePEc/pdf/1103.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1103.

as in new window
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nlv:wpaper:1103

Contact details of provider:
Phone: (702) 895-3776
Fax: (702) 895-1354
Web page: http://business.unlv.edu/econ/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Forecasting; Linear and non-linear models; Nevada gross gaming revenue; Nevada taxable sales;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 755-774.
  2. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
  3. Swanson, Norman R & White, Halbert, 1995. "A Model-Selection Approach to Assessing the Information in the Term Structure Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 265-75, July.
  4. Anirvan Banerji & Pami Dua & Stephen M. Miller, 2003. "Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models," Working papers 114, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  5. Lisi, Francesco & Schiavo, Rosa A., 1999. "A comparison between neural networks and chaotic models for exchange rate prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 87-102, March.
  6. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
  7. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 216, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  8. Swanson, N.R. & White, H., 1995. "A Models Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Papers 04-95-12, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  9. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  10. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O. & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Norman Swanson, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA Models for Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 200422, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  12. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  13. Costas Milas & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Financial Market Conditions, Real Time, Nonlinearity and European Central Bank Monetary Policy: In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Assessment," Working Papers 200923, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  14. Tristen Hayfield & Jeffrey S. Racine, . "Nonparametric Econometrics: The np Package," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(i05).
  15. Deschamps, Philippe J., 2007. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US Unemployment," DQE Working Papers 7, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland, revised 04 Jun 2008.
  16. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  18. Dua, Pami & Miller, Stephen M, 1996. "Forecasting Connecticut Home Sales in a BVAR Framework Using Coincident and Leading Indexes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-35, November.
  19. Philip Rothman, 1998. "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 164-168, February.
  20. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
  21. Rothman, Philip & van Dijk, Dick & null, Philip Hans, 2001. "Multivariate Star Analysis Of Money Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 506-532, September.
  22. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni, 2004. "Forecasting threshold cointegrated systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-253.
  23. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nlv:wpaper:1103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bill Robinson).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.