Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Will China’s Recovery Affect Africa’s Prospects for Economic Growth?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Maswana, Jean-Claude

Abstract

The likelihood that China’s economic recovery will affect the growth of selected African economies (Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa) was investigated by examining annual co-movements in GDP. Using aggregate outputs as proxies for business cycle indicators along with a threshold autoregressive estimation technique, we found evidence that the aggregate outputs of three of the aforementioned African countries are nonlinearly co-integrated with that of China. Unexpectedly, we also found that the adjustment responses of African output to downturns far outweighs responses to upturns: In particular, Nigerian output adjusts relatively quickly to offset lower levels with respect to its long-run trend vis-à-vis China’s GDP. In Kenya, by contrast, the speed of adjustment is more rapid for positive discrepancies than for negative ones. Other findings support the proposition that African economies will benefit from a China-led global recovery, though at different rates for different countries depending on whether the exports contribute to China’s production chain (as raw materials) or to its consumption chain. Over the long run, the gains from synchronization via trade of the outputs of African economies with those of China and other major economies will depend strongly on the Africans’ preparedness for the development of efficient and supportive physical infrastructure.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10685/39
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://repository.ri.jica.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/10685/39/1/JICA-RI_WP_No.19_2010.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by JICA Research Institute in its series Working Papers with number 19.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 22 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:jic:wpaper:19

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 6th-13th floors, Shinjuku Maynds Tower, 2-1-1 Yoyogi, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 151-8558
Phone: +81-3-5352-5311
Web page: http://jica-ri.jica.go.jp/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: macroeconomic interdependence ; economic recovery ; China ; Africa ; economic growth;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John W. Budd & Josef Konings & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2002. "International Rent Sharing in Multinational Firms," NBER Working Papers 8809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-Dependent Synchronization of Growth Cycles between Japan and East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 147-176.
  3. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  4. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2002. "An investigation of co-movements among the growth rates of the G-7 countries," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 427-437.
  5. Henry, Olan T & Summers, Peter M, 2000. "Australian Economic Growth: Nonlinearities and International Influences," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 365-73, December.
  6. John W. Budd & Jozef Konings & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2005. "Wages and International Rent Sharing in Multinational Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 73-84, February.
  7. Gregory, Allan W & Head, Allen C & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997. "Measuring World Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 677-701, August.
  8. Michael J. Artis & Jarko Fidrmuc & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The transmission of business cycles," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 559-582, 07.
  9. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
  10. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Selahattin Dibooglu, 2000. "International Monetary Regimes and Incidence and Transmission of Macroeconomic Shocks: Evidence from the Bretton Woods and Modern Floating Periods," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 590-608, January.
  12. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  13. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Goodwin, Barry K. & Piggott, Nicholas E., 1999. "Spatial Market Integration In The Presence Of Threshold Effects," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21489, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  15. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004. "Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447.
  16. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
  19. Jean-Claude Maswana, 2009. "Can China Trigger Economic Growth in Africa?," Chinese Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(2), pages 91-105, March.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  21. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  22. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  24. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  25. Siklos, Pierre L., 2002. "Asymmetric adjustment from structural booms and slumps," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 329-333, November.
  26. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993. "Convergence in International Output," Working papers 93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  27. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
  28. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  29. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
  30. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 58-78.
  31. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
  32. Petri, Peter A., 2006. "Is East Asia becoming more interdependent?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 381-394, June.
  33. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?," IMF Working Papers 08/100, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Kraay, Aart & Ventura, Jaume, 1995. "Trade and fluctuations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1560, The World Bank.
  35. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
  36. Bowden, Roger J & Martin, Vance L, 1995. "International Business Cycles and Financial Integration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 305-20, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jic:wpaper:19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Japan International Cooperation Agency Library).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.