Causal relation between interest and exchange rates in the Asian currency crisis
AbstractThis paper studies the causal relationship between interest rates and exchange rates in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand during the period bordering the 1997 Asian currency crisis to investigate the appropriateness of tight monetary policy in stabilizing exchange rates. We employ VAR models consisting of spot rates, forward rates and interest rate differentials to study the causal relations. In particular, we test for long-run causality as well as short-run causality by taking into account non-stationarity of the involved variables and the cointegrating relations among them. The test results show that except for some subsamples for Malaysia there is no evidence that interest rate differentials caused spot exchange rates at all horizons. Considering the ineffectiveness of high interest rates in stabilizing exchange rates and the high economic cost associated with keeping high interest rates for an extended time period, one may rightfully question the appropriateness of tight monetary policy during the Asian currency crisis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.
Volume (Year): 20 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Byeongseon, Seo, 1998. "Statistical inference on cointegration rank in error correction models with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 339-385, August.
- Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993.
"Vector Autoregressions and Causality,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
- Choi, In, 1994. "Durbin-Hausman tests for cointegration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 467-480, March.
- Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
- Dekle, Robert & Hsiao, Cheng & Wang, Siyan, 2002. "High Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Stabilization in Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand: An Empirical Investigation of the Traditional and Revisionist Views," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 64-78, February.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998.
"What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
- Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Baig, Taimur & Goldfajn, Ilan, 2002.
"Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 92-112, February.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Monetary policy in the aftermath of currency crisis: the case of Asia," Textos para discussÃ£o 399, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.