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Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?

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Author Info

  • Anna Creti

    ()
    (EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Ouest, and Ecole Polytechnique,)

  • Pierre-André Jouvet

    ()
    (EconomiX and Climate Economics Chair)

  • Valérie Mignon

    ()
    (EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Ouest, and CEPII)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the carbon price during the two phases of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). More specifically, relying on daily EU allowance futures contracts, we test whether the carbon price drivers identified for Phase I still hold for Phase II and evolve toward a long-run relationship. Using cointegration techniques and accounting for the 2006 structural break on the carbon market, we show that while a cointegrating relationship exists for both phases of the EU ETS, the nature of this equilibrium relationship is different across the two subperiods, with an increasing role of fundamentals in Phase II. Deriving equilibrium values, we show that the carbon price tends to be undervalued since the end of 2009.

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File URL: http://cec-repec.site11.com/RePEc/cec/wpaper/11-05_WP_2011-06_Creti_Jouvet_Mignon.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Chaire Economie du Climat in its series Working Papers with number 1106.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cec:wpaper:1106

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Keywords: EU ETS; carbon price; energy prices; cointegration.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kimmo Ollikka & Piia Aatola & Markku Ollikainen, 2012. "Informational Efficiency of the EU ETS market ? a study of price predictability and profitable trading," Working Papers 28, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  2. Bangzhu Zhu & Shujiao Ma & Julien Chevallier & Yiming Wei, 2014. "Modeling the dynamics of European carbon futures price: a Zipf analysis," Working Papers 2014-155, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  3. Fagiani, Riccardo & Hakvoort, Rudi, 2014. "The role of regulatory uncertainty in certificate markets: A case study of the Swedish/Norwegian market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 608-618.
  4. Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria, 2014. "Dynamics of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 02/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  5. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-001 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  6. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
  7. Vicente Medina Martínez & Ángel Pardo Tornero & Roberto Pascual, 2012. "The timeline of trading fricions in the European Carbon Market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  8. Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "Carbon Financial Markets: a time-frequency analysis of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 03/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  9. Harrison Fell & Beat Hintermann & Herman R. J. Vollebergh, 2013. "Carbon Content of Electricity Futures in Phase II of the EU ETS," CESifo Working Paper Series 4367, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Vincent Bertrand, 2013. "Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with non-equally efficient power plants," Working Papers 1309, Chaire Economie du Climat.
  11. Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Toppinen, Anne, 2013. "Impact of the carbon price on the integrating European electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1236-1251.

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