Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS
AbstractThe topic of this article is the analysis of the interplay between daily carbon, electricity and gas price data with the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) for CO2 emissions. In a first step we have performed Granger causality tests for Phase I of the EU ETS (January 2005 until December 2007) and the first year of Phase II of the EU ETS (2008). The analysis includes both spot and forward markets--given the close interactions between the two sets of markets. The results show that during Phase I coal and gas prices, through the clean dark and spark spread, impacted CO2 futures prices, which in return Granger caused electricity prices. During the first year of the Phase II, the short-run rent capture theory (in which electricity prices Granger cause CO2 prices) prevailed. On the basis of the qualitative results of the Granger causality tests we obtained the formulation testable equations for quantitative analysis. Standard OLS regressions yielded statistically robust and theoretically coherent results.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.
Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
CO2 futures Energy prices Granger causality;
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- CO2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - - - -
- fut - - - - - -
- Ene - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - - - -
- pri - - - - - -
- Gra - Financial Economics - - - - -
- cau - - - - - -
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- Jouvet, Pierre-André & Solier, Boris, 2013. "An overview of CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices in Europe," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7761, Paris Dauphine University.
- Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-001, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011.
"Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?,"
1106, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I Versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 2011-09, CEPII research center.
- Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yiming, 2013. "Carbon price forecasting with a novel hybrid ARIMA and least squares support vector machines methodology," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 517-524.
- Boris Solier & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2011. "An overview of CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices in Europe," Working Papers 1108, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- repec:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/7761 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/8200 is not listed on IDEAS
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