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An emerging equilibrium in the EU emissions trading scheme

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  • Bredin, Don
  • Muckley, Cal

Abstract

The European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is the key policy instrument of the European Commission's Climate Change Program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012. A critically important element of the EU ETS is the establishment of a market determined price for EU allowances. This article examines the extent to which several theoretically founded factors including, economic growth, energy prices and weather conditions determine the expected prices of the European Union CO2 allowances during the 2005 through to the 2009 period. The novel aspect of our study is that we examine heavily traded futures instruments that have an expiry date in Phase 2 of the EU ETS. Our study adopts both static and recursive versions of the Johansen multivariate cointegration likelihood ratio test as well as a variation on this test with a view to controlling for time varying volatility effects. Our results are indicative of a new pricing regime emerging in Phase 2 and point to a maturing market driven by the fundamentals. These results are valuable both for traders of EU allowances and for those policy makers seeking to improve the design of the European Union ETS.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 353-362

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:353-362

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

Related research

Keywords: CO2 prices Energy EU ETS Kyoto Protocol Weather;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Miyoshi, Chikage, 2014. "Assessing the equity impact of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme on an African airline," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 56-64.
  2. Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 1106, Chaire Economie du Climat.
  3. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6969, Paris Dauphine University.
  4. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
  5. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-001, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  6. Gary Koop & Lise Tole, 2011. "Forecasting the European Carbon Market," Working Papers 1110, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  7. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
  8. Byun, Suk Joon & Cho, Hangjun, 2013. "Forecasting carbon futures volatility using GARCH models with energy volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 207-221.
  9. Kannan Thuraisamy & Gerard Gannon, 2012. "Modelling the Sovereign Linkages of Key Latin American Economies," Financial Econometics Series 2012_03, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  10. Aleksandar Zaklan, 2013. "Why Do Emitters Trade Carbon Permits?: Firm-Level Evidence from the European Emission Trading Scheme," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1275, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  11. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
  12. Reboredo, Juan C., 2014. "Volatility spillovers between the oil market and the European Union carbon emission market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 229-234.
  13. Fagiani, Riccardo & Hakvoort, Rudi, 2014. "The role of regulatory uncertainty in certificate markets: A case study of the Swedish/Norwegian market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 608-618.

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