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Allowance Price Drivers in the First Phase of the EU ETS

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Author Info
Beat Hintermann () (Center for Energy Policy and Economics CEPE, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

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Abstract

In the first phase of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the price per ton of CO2 rose to over €30 before decreasing to zero by mid 2007. I examine to what extent this variation can be explained by marginal abatement costs by deriving a structural model of the allowance price under the assumption of efficient markets. I then gradually relax the model by allowing for delayed adjustment of price to fundamentals, as well as by introducing lagged LHS variables. The pattern of the results suggests that prices were not initially driven by marginal abatement costs, but that this inefficiency was largely corrected by the first round of emission verifications.

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File URL: http://www.cepe.ethz.ch/publications/workingPapers/CEPE_WP63.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zürich in its series CEPE Working paper series with number 09-63.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cee:wpcepe:09-63

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Related research
Keywords: Emissions permit markets; air pollution; climate change; bubble; speculation; CO2; asset pricing; EU ETS;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-8.


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