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Pricing emission permits in the absence of abatement

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  • Hintermann, Beat

Abstract

If emissions are stochastic and firms are unable to control them through abatement, the cap in a permit market may be exceeded, or not be reached. I derive a binary options pricing formula that expresses the permit price as a function of the penalty for noncompliance and the probability of an exceeded cap under the assumption of no abatement. I apply my model to the EU ETS, where the rapid introduction of the market made it difficult for firms to adjust their production technology in time for the first phase. The model fits the data well, implying that the permit price may have been driven by firms hedging against stochastic emissions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 1329-1340

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:5:p:1329-1340

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

Related research

Keywords: Emission permit market; EU ETS; Options pricing; Climate change; Air pollution;

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References

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  1. Böhringer, Christoph & Lange, Andreas, 2003. "On the Design of Optimal Grandfathering Schemes for Emission Allowances," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-08, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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  11. Wilfried Rickels & Vicki Duscha & Andreas Keller & Sonja Peterson, 2007. "The determinants of allowance prices in the European Emissions Trading Scheme - Can we expect an efficient allowance market 2008?," Kiel Working Papers 1387, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  12. Umut Çetin & Michel Verschuere, 2009. "Pricing And Hedging In Carbon Emissions Markets," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(07), pages 949-967.
  13. Montgomery, W. David, 1972. "Markets in licenses and efficient pollution control programs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 395-418, December.
  14. A. Ellerman & Barbara Buchner, 2008. "Over-Allocation or Abatement? A Preliminary Analysis of the EU ETS Based on the 2005–06 Emissions Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 267-287, October.
  15. Beat Hintermann, 2011. "Market Power, Permit Allocation and Efficiency in Emission Permit Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 327-349, July.
  16. Cronshaw, Mark B & Brown-Kruse, Jamie, 1996. "Regulated Firms in Pollution Permit Markets with Banking," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-89, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Will Gans & Beat Hintermann, 2011. "Market Effects of Voluntary Climate Action by Firms: Evidence from the Chicago Climate Exchange," CESifo Working Paper Series 3445, CESifo Group Munich.

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