Pricing emission permits in the absence of abatement
AbstractIf emissions are stochastic and firms are unable to control them through abatement, the cap in a permit market may be exceeded, or not be reached. I derive a binary options pricing formula that expresses the permit price as a function of the penalty for noncompliance and the probability of an exceeded cap under the assumption of no abatement. I apply my model to the EU ETS, where the rapid introduction of the market made it difficult for firms to adjust their production technology in time for the first phase. The model fits the data well, implying that the permit price may have been driven by firms hedging against stochastic emissions.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Emission permit market; EU ETS; Options pricing; Climate change; Air pollution;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
- Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
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