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The EU Emissions Trading Scheme: the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices

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  • Emilic Alberola
  • Julien Chevallier
  • Benoit Cheze

Abstract

This article critically examines the impact of industrial production for sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on emissions allowance spot prices during Phase I (2005-2007). First, sector production indices are used as a proxy of economic activity in sectors covered by the EU ETS. Second, a ratio of allowance allocation relative to baseline CO2 emissions is used to measure the extent to which installations are constrained by the EU ETS. We show that carbon price changes react not only to energy prices forecast errors and extreme temperatures events, but also to industrial production in three sectors covered by the EU ETS: combustion, paper and iron.

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File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev116/ei116d.htm
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 116 ()
Pages: 93-126

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2008-4td

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Keywords: EU ETS; Emissions Trading; Carbon Pricing; CO2 Emissions; Industrial Production;

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  1. Demailly, Damien & Quirion, Philippe, 2008. "European Emission Trading Scheme and competitiveness: A case study on the iron and steel industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 2009-2027, July.
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  5. A. Ellerman & Barbara Buchner, 2008. "Over-Allocation or Abatement? A Preliminary Analysis of the EU ETS Based on the 2005–06 Emissions Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 267-287, October.
  6. Diakoulaki, D. & Mandaraka, M., 2007. "Decomposition analysis for assessing the progress in decoupling industrial growth from CO2 emissions in the EU manufacturing sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 636-664, July.
  7. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
  8. Meghan McGuinness & Raphael Trotignon, 2007. "Technical Memorandum on Analysis of the EU ETS Using the Community Independent Transaction Log," Working Papers 0712, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
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  14. Noll, Roger G, 1982. "Implementing Marketable Emissions Permits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 120-24, May.
  15. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
  16. Junsoo Lee & Mark Strazicich, 2001. "Testing the null of stationarity in the presence of a structural break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 377-382.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6970, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1804-1814, June.
  3. Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 1106, Chaire Economie du Climat.
  4. Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "EU Emission Allowances and the stock market: Evidence from the electricity industry," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1116-1126, February.
  5. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2011. "Forecasting the European Carbon Market," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-20, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  6. Julien Chevallier & Johanna Etner & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2008. "Bankable Pollution Permits under Uncertainty and Optimal Risk Management Rules: Theory and Empirical Evidence," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-25, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.

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