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Determinants of the profit rates in the OECD economies: A panel data analysis of the Kalecki's profit equation

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  • Trofimov, Ivan D.

Abstract

The paper considers several determinants of profitability (investment rate, trade surplus, and budget deficit) in the OECD economies in the 1960–2014 period, using the Kalecki's profits equation framework. We estimate and utilise the aggregate profit rate measures for the total economy, employ a series of panel unit root and panel cointegration tests, and apply panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to examine the relationship between the profit rate and its determinants in the short- and long-run. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis of positive effects of trade surplus on profitability, in line with Kaleckian views concerning the cyclical and secular dynamics of profits and profit restoration forces in the capitalist economies. The positive effects of investment rate on profitability are not confirmed, while the effects of fiscal activism on profitability are demonstrably negative; in contrast, a strong positive influence of profit rate on the pace of capital accumulation (investment) is indicated. The results are robust across sub-periods and panels with smaller cross-sectional dimension. Empirical results highlight the divergence between real investment and profitability, capital formation slowdown, and fiscal policy implementation problems in OECD economies over recent decades.

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  • Trofimov, Ivan D., 2022. "Determinants of the profit rates in the OECD economies: A panel data analysis of the Kalecki's profit equation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 380-397.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:61:y:2022:i:c:p:380-397
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2022.03.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Profit rate; Panel data; Cointegration; Panel vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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