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Does Investment Call the Tune? Empirical Evidence and Endogenous Theories of the Business Cycle

In: Contradictions: Finance, Greed, and Labor Unequally Paid

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  • Jose´ A. Tapia Granados

Abstract

Theories of the business cycle can be classified into two main groups, exogenous and endogenous, according to the way they explain economic fluctuations – either as responses of the economy to factors that are external (exogenous shocks) or as upturns and downturns of the economic system internally generated (by endogenous factors). In endogenous theories, investment is generally a key variable to explain the dynamic status of the economy. This essay examines the role of investment in endogenous theories. Two contrasting views on how changes in investment and profitability push the economy towards expansion or contraction are represented by the insights of Kalecki, Keynes, Matthews and Minsky versus those of Marx and Mitchell. Hyman Minsky claimed that investment ‘calls the tune’ to indicate that investment is the only variable not determined by other variables, so that future profits, investment and the dynamic status of the economy are determined by current investment and investment in the near past. However, this hypothesis does not appear to be supported by available empirical data for 251 quarters of the US economy. Statistical evidence rather supports the hypothesis of causality in the direction of profits determining investment and, in this way, leading the economy towards boom or bust.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose´ A. Tapia Granados, 2013. "Does Investment Call the Tune? Empirical Evidence and Endogenous Theories of the Business Cycle," Research in Political Economy, in: Contradictions: Finance, Greed, and Labor Unequally Paid, pages 229-259, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:rpeczz:s0161-7230(2013)0000028009
    DOI: 10.1108/S0161-7230(2013)0000028009
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    Cited by:

    1. Tapia, Jose, 2015. "Profits encourage investment, investment dampens profits, government spending does not prime the pump — A DAG investigation of business-cycle dynamics," MPRA Paper 64985, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2015.
    2. Duque Garcia, Carlos Alberto, 2021. "Economic Growth and the Rate of Profit in Colombia 1967-2019: A VAR Time-Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 109890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2022. "Determinants of the profit rates in the OECD economies: A panel data analysis of the Kalecki's profit equation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 380-397.
    4. Duque Garcia, Carlos Alberto, 2022. "Ciclos económicos, inversión y rentabilidad del capital en Colombia: un análisis de series de tiempo [Economic cycles, investment and profits in Colombia: a time-series analysis]," MPRA Paper 113272, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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