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Effects of Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: the Case of Chile

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Eric Parrado

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Abstract

This paper considers empirical evidence for a small open economy, characterizing and identifying the dynamic effects of both foreign and monetary policy shocks on Chilean macroeconomic variables. A structural VAR approach is used with non-recursive contemporaneous restrictions. Several interesting results appear in the analysis. First, consistent with the predictions of a stochastic rational expectations model, a domestic monetary contraction generates a transitory fall in output and monetary aggregates. Second, there is no evidence of price and exchange rate puzzles. Third, the source of Chilean output, price level, and real exchange rate volatility is similar to that identified in industrial countries: monetary policy explains a relatively small proportion of output, price level, and exchange rate variability. Finally, foreign monetary policy innovations have very short-lived effects on domestic interest rates and have no major influence over other Chilean macroeconomic variables; while risk premium shocks influence significatively both the interest rate and the exchange rate.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 108.

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Date of creation: Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:108

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky Price and Limited Participation Models of Money: A Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini, 1995. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates: Puzzling Evidence from the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 95-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  5. Eric Parrado & Andres Velasco, 2002. "Optimal Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Eric Parrado, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Rules in an Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 04/21, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Rómulo Chumacero, 2003. "A Toolkit for Analyzing Alternative Policies in The Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 241, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  10. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 847-859, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Critical Issues," NBER Working Papers 4368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1993. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," Working Paper 93-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  15. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique, 1998. "Empirical Puzzles of Chilean Stabilization Policy," Working Papers 98-02, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés-Serra & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," RES Working Papers 4170, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Roman Horváth & Marek Rusnák, 2008. "How Important Are Foreign Shocks in Small Open Economy? The Case of Slovakia," Working Papers IES 2008/21, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fabián Gredig U. & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel D. & Rodrigo O. Valdés P., 2008. "The Monetary Policy Horizon in Chile and Other Inflation-Targeting Countries," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 5-27, April. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Saki Bigio & Jorge Salas, 2006. "Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Shocks in Partially Dollarized Economies: An Empirical Study for Peru," Working Papers 2006-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rómulo Chumacero, 2003. "A Toolkit for Analyzing Alternative Policies in The Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 241, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roberto Duncan, 2002. "How Well Does a Monetary Dynamic Equilibrium Model Account for Chilean Data?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 190, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Carlos José García, 2001. "Políticas de Estabilización en Chile Durante los Noventa," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 132, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Héctor Bravo L. & Carlos García T. & Verónica Mies M. & Matías Tapia G., 2003. "Heterogeneidad de la Transmisión Monetaria: Efectos Sectoriales y Regionales," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(3), pages 5-26, December. [Downloadable!]
  8. Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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