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How Important Are Foreign Shocks in Small Open Economy? The Case of Slovakia

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  • Roman Horváth

    ()

  • Marek Rusnák

Abstract

In this paper, we provide evidence on the nature and the relative importance of domestic and foreign shocks in Slovak economy based on block-restriction vector autoregression model in 1999-2007. We document well-functioning monetary transmission mechanism in Slovakia. Subject to various sensitivity checks, we find that contractionary monetary policy shock has a temporary negative effect on the degree of economic activity and price level. We find that using output gap instead of GDP alleviates the price puzzle. In general, prices are driven mainly by foreign factors and the European Central Bank monetary policy shock on Slovak prices is more powerful than that of the National Bank of Slovakia. Slovak central bank interest rate policy seems to follow the ECB’s interest rates. On the other hand, spectacular Slovak economic growth is primarily driven by domestic factors suggesting the positive role of recently undertaken Slovak economic reforms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp933.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2008-933

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Keywords: small open economy; foreign shocks; monetary policy; Slovakia; euro area.;

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References

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  1. Magdalena Morgese Borys & Roman Horvath, 2008. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study," Working Papers 2008/4, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 13542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Crucini, Mario J, 2001. "Comment on Has Monetary Policy Been so Bad that It Is Better to Get Rid of It? The Case of Mexico," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 434-39, May.
  4. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
  5. Marek Jarocinski, 2004. "Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0287, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  6. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September.
  7. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  8. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
  9. Paolo Giordani, 2004. "Evaluating New-Keynesian Models of a Small Open Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 713-733, 09.
  10. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0092, European Central Bank.
  13. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
  14. Marco del Negro & Francesc Obiols-Homs, 2001. "Has monetary policy been so bad that it is better to get rid of it? The case of Mexico," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 404-439.
  15. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2007. "External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2512-2520, November.
  16. Elbourne, Adam & de Haan, Jakob, 2006. "Financial structure and monetary policy transmission in transition countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-23, March.
  17. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
  18. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  19. David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Working Paper 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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Cited by:
  1. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2012. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2012/27, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2012.
  2. Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe," Working Papers 185, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. Jan Babecky & Alena Bicakova & Alexis Derviz & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jakub Mateju & Ke Pang & Renata Pasalicova & Zuzana Prelcova & Marie Rakova & Pierre, 2011. "Macro-Financial Linkages: Theory and Applications," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 9, number rb09/2 edited by Jan Babecky, August.
  4. Juraj Antal & Jan Filáček & Jan Frait & Roman Horvath & Viktor Kotlán & Michal Skořepa, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategies before Euro Adoption: The Art of Chasing Many Rabbits," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 176-198, July.
  5. Michal Andrle & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Giang Ho, 2013. "The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure," IMF Working Papers 13/220, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Iulian Vasile POPESCU, 2014. "Global financial crisis-driven mutations affecting the transmission mechanism customized to monetary policy strategies. A VAR, SVAR and BVAR approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(591)), pages 35-66, February.

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