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On the dynamics of the Israeli-Arab arms race

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Author Info
Abu-Qarn, Aamer S.
Abu-Bader, Suleiman

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Abstract

This article investigates the causal relationships between the military expenditures and military burden of the four major sides of the Israeli-Arab conflict, namely, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria over the period 1960-2004. We utilize both the causality test suggested by Toda and Yamamoto [Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250] and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method of [Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics Letters, 58, 17-29]. Our findings suggest weak causality that runs usually from Israel's to Arab's military spending. The strongest links are between Israel and Syria that are still in a state of enmity. No causality was detected between Israel's and Jordan's military spending.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W5X-4VKXC7N-1/2/8f6605741db09b7aec9f509f95a1dc4c
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 49 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 931-943
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Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:49:y:2009:i:3:p:931-943

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167

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Related research
Keywords: Arms race Middle East Israeli-Arab conflict Causality Generalized forecast error variance decomposition;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326. [Downloadable!]
  3. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-98, May.
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  4. Seiglie, Carlos & Liu, Peter C., 2002. "Arms races in the developing world: some policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 693-705, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. J. Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou & Ron Smith, 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(2), pages 1. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  8. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2007. "Structural Breaks in Military Expenditures: Evidence for Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria," Working Papers 231, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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