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Is There an Alternative to Export-led Growth for Thailand?

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Author Info

  • Chaipat Poonpatpibul

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Nutthikarn Vorasangasil

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Manatchai Junetrakool

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Punjaphut Prasitdechsakul

    (Bank of Thailand)

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    Abstract

    To answer the question of whether there is an alternative to exportled growth in Thailand, this study investigates the importance of exports to the Thai economy followed by the assessment about the potential of domestic demand to replace exports as the main engine for economic growth. It is found that the export sector has been the significant provider of income for the economy and the most important engine of growth since 1997. Due to the small domestic market, domestic demand would not be able to replace exports as the superior engine in the medium and long term Besides, the Thai economy will still need to depend on the export sector for investment, employment and particularly productivity improvement. However, strengthening domestic demand would be crucial for the economy as 1) it would need to perform the important role as a buffer against negative foreign demand shocks and 2) there is the need to expand domestic demand especially investment to help ensure economic recovery as well as achieve sustainable long term growth.

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    File URL: http://www.bot.or.th/English/EconomicConditions/Semina/Documents/paper2_sym09.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand in its series Working Papers with number 2009-02.

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    Length: 97 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bth:wpaper:2009-02

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    1. McCoy, Daniel, 1997. "How useful is Structural VAR Analysis for Irish economics?," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/97, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Alvarez, Roberto, 2007. "Explaining Export Success: Firm Characteristics and Spillover Effects," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 377-393, March.
    3. Nuno Crespo & Maria Paula Fontoura, 2005. "Determinant Factors of FDI Spillovers – What Do We Really Know?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2005/06, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
    4. Wagner, Joachim, 2005. "Exports and Productivity : A survey of the evidence from firm level data," HWWA Discussion Papers 319, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    5. Nuno Crespo & Isabel Proença & Maria Paula Fontoura, 2007. "FDI Spillovers at Regional Level: Evidence from Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/28, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
    6. Mary Hallward-Driemeier & Giuseppe Iarossi & Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 2002. "Exports and Manufacturing Productivity in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis with Firm-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 8894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Greenaway, David & Guariglia, Alessandra & Kneller, Richard, 2007. "Financial factors and exporting decisions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 377-395, November.
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