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Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks

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  • van Dijk, D.J.C.
  • Osborn, D.R.
  • Sensier, M.

Abstract

We examine the size properties of tests for causality in variance in the presence of structural breaks in volatility. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these tests suffer from severe size distortions when such breaks are not taken into account. Pre-testing the series for structural changes in volatility is shown to largely remedy the problem.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2004-48.

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Date of creation: 05 Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1801

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Keywords: causality tests; structural change; volatitilty;

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References

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  1. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
  3. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Volatility and shocks spillover before and after EMU in European stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 323-340, December.
  4. Pantelidis, Theologos & Pittis, Nikitas, 2004. "Testing for Granger causality in variance in the presence of causality in mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 201-207, November.
  5. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Multiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0202, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  6. Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2004. "Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 833-839, August.
  7. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
  8. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1.
  10. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
  12. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
  13. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-38.
  14. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rubia, Antonio, 2007. "Testing for causality in variance under nonstationarity in variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 133-137, November.
  2. Hernandez, Manuel A. & Gardebroek, Cornelis, 2012. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124583, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  3. Javier Pereda, 2009. "Estimación de la curva de rendimiento para el Perú y su uso para el análisis monetario," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 413-450, octubre-d.
  4. Guillermo Benavides & Carlos Capistrán, 2009. "Una nota sobre las volatilidades de la tasa de interés y del tipo de cambio según diferentes instrumentos de política monetaria: México 1998-2008," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 391-412, octubre-d.
  5. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Stelios Bekiros & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "The Multiscale Causal Dynamics of Foreign Exchange Markets," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/23, European University Institute.
  7. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2009. "La curva de rendimiento y su relación con la actividad económica: una aplicación para México," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 297-357, octubre-d.
  8. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Spillovers among CDS indexes in the US financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 104-113.
  9. Gebka, Bartosz & Serwa, Dobromil, 2007. "Intra- and inter-regional spillovers between emerging capital markets around the world," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-221, June.
  10. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2012. "International market links and volatility transmission," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 117-141.
  11. Pablo Mendieta Ossio & Sergio Cerezo Aguirre & Javier Cossío Medinacelli, 2009. "¿La inflación está de vuelta en Sudamérica?. Choques exógenos, expectativas y credibilidad de la política monetaria," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 11(1), pages 111-146, December.
  12. Korkmaz, Turhan & Çevik, Emrah İ. & Atukeren, Erdal, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers among CIVETS stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 230-252.
  13. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
  14. Sinem Derindere KOSEOGLU & Emrah Ismail CEVIK, 2013. "Testing for Causality in Mean and Variance between the Stock Market and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Application to the Major Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 65-86, March.
  15. Guillermo Benavides & Carlos Capistrán, 2009. "A Note on the Volatilities of the Interest Rate and the Exchange Rate Under Different Monetary Policy Instruments: Mexico 1998-2008," Working Papers 2009-10, Banco de México.

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