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The Transmission of World Shocks to Emerging-Market Countries: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Brigitte Desroches
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    Abstract

    The first step in designing effective policies to stabilize an economy is to understand business cycles. No country is isolated from the world economy and external shocks are becoming increasingly important. The author documents the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in 22 emerging-market countries, and measures two specific shocks that could be transmitted from one country to another: a world real output shock and a world real interest rate shock. Her analysis shows that there are major differences in the transmission mechanism across emerging-market countries. To assess whether they are due to different economic structures or to the exchange rate regime, she divides the sample into groups of countries. The results indicate that the exchange rate regime is a critical factor, although restrictions on capital flows also play a crucial role. The author also shows that regional groups and trade openness do not play as important a role as the exchange rate regime and capital flows in determining the transmission of business cycles.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-44.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-44

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    Related research

    Keywords: International topics; Exchange rate regimes; Transmission of monetary policy;

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    References

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 4658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge E. Roldós & Peter Wickham, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 132-160, March.
    5. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1994. "Macroeconomic Adjustment with Segmented Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 4769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, 07.
    7. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Finn E. Kydland & Calos E.J.M.Zarazaga, 1997. "Is the business cycle of Argentina "different?"," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 21-36.
    10. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    11. Jorge Roldos & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1996. "The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 96/20, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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