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Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application

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  • R. Scott Hacker
  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J

Abstract

Causality tests in the Granger's sense are increasingly applied in empirical research. Since the unit root revolution in time-series analysis, several modifications of tests for causality have been introduced in the literature. One of the recent developments is the Toda-Yamamoto modified Wald (MWALD) test, which is attractive due to its simple application, its absence of pre-testing distortions, and its basis on a standard asymptotical distribution irrespective of the number of unit roots and the cointegrating properties of the data. This study investigates the size properties of the MWALD test and finds that in small sample sizes this test performs poorly on those properties when using its asymptotical distribution, the chi-square. It is suggested that use be made of a leveraged bootstrap distribution to lower the size distortions. Monte Carlo simulation results show that an MWALD test based on a bootstrap distribution has much smaller size distortions than corresponding cases when the asymptotic distribution is used. These results hold for different sample sizes, integration orders, and error term processes (homoscedastic or ARCH). This new method is applied to the testing of the efficient market hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
Pages: 1489-1500

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:13:p:1489-1500

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References

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  3. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2004. "Is the Equity Market Informationally Efficient in Japan? Evidence from Leveraged Bootstrap Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 57(4), pages 461-473.
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  8. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2005. "Exchange rates and stock prices interaction during good and bad times: evidence from the ASEAN4 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 539-546.
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  10. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "A test for multivariate ARCH effects," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 411-417.
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  13. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2006. "A bootstrap-corrected causality test: another look at the money–income relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 207-216, March.
  14. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2004. "An examination of the equity market price linkage between Australia and the European Union using leveraged bootstrap method," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 475-488.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hatemi, A. & Irandoust, M., 2005. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Sweden: A Leveraged Bootstrap Approach, 1965-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(4), pages 87-98.
  2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
  3. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2004. "An examination of the equity market price linkage between Australia and the European Union using leveraged bootstrap method," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 475-488.
  4. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2010. "An empirical investigation of the informational efficiency of the GCC equity markets: Evidence from bootstrap simulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 47-54, January.
  5. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2013. "Housing and the Great Depression," Working Papers 1301, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  6. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, lukasz, 2011. "The role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the Polish economy in transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2088-2099, April.
  7. Gurgul, Henryk & Łukasz, Lach, 2011. "Financial development and economic growth in Poland in transition: causality analysis," MPRA Paper 38034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2012. "The electricity consumption versus economic growth of the Polish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 500-510.
  9. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "A bootstrap test for causality with endogenous lag length choice: theory and application in finance," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(2), pages 144-160, May.
  10. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Roca, Eduardo, 2006. "A re-examination of international portfolio diversification based on evidence from leveraged bootstrap methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 993-1007, December.
  11. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Lukasz & Mestel, Roland, 2011. "The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland," MPRA Paper 35784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
  13. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2011. "The Nexus between Improvements in Economic Freedom and Growth: Evidence from CEE Countries in Transition," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 3(3), pages 133-168, September.
  14. A. Talha Yalta & Hatice Cakar, 2012. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China: A Reconciliation," Working Papers 1202, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  15. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2012. "Breakdowns and revivals: the long-run relationship between the stock market and real economic activity in the G-7 countries," MPRA Paper 43306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2005. "Exchange rates and stock prices interaction during good and bad times: evidence from the ASEAN4 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 539-546.
  17. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2006. "A bootstrap-corrected causality test: another look at the money–income relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 207-216, March.
  18. Tang, Chor Foon, 2010. "Savings-led growth theories: A time series analysis for Malaysia using the bootstrapping and time-varying causality techniques," MPRA Paper 27299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. repec:pra:mprapa:37413 is not listed on IDEAS

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  1. 格蘭傑因果關係 in Wikipedia (Chinese)
  2. Granger Nedenselliği in Wikipedia (Turkish)
  3. Granger causality in Wikipedia (English)

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