This article decomposes U.S. GDP into components associated with major macroeconomic disturbances in order to identify the likely causes of the 1990 recession. Four types of disturbances--aggregate supply, aggregate spending, money demand and money supply--are identified in the empirical analysis. The results suggest the general slowing of the economy relative to trend prior to the actual downturn was due to restrictive monetary policy. Aggregate spending factors turned contractionary in mid-1990, however, and accounted for most of the subsequent decline in GDP during the rest of 1990.
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Matthew Shapiro & Mark Watson, 1988.
"Sources of Business Cycles Fluctuations,"
NBER Chapters,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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