Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey

Contents:

Author Info

  • Harun Alp
  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya
  • Mustafa Kilinc
  • Canan Yuksel

Abstract

This study documents the stylized facts about the business cycles in Turkey using quarterly data between 1987 and 2009. In particular, we document the business cycle turning points and average duration of cycles for Turkey, as well as the optimal smoothing parameter for Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter estimated in line with our estimate of average business cycle duration for 1987-2009 period, 20 quarters, which is shorter compared to developed countries, and comparable to other developing countries. For filtering procedure, we use this estimated parameter, in addition to 1600, in HP filter and compare our findings. We find that business cycle relationships between macroeconomic variables in Turkey are mostly in accordance with the patterns observed for developing countries, which significantly differ from developed countries’ business cycle facts. In particular, the real side of the economy is characterized by high volatility of consumption and a countercyclical pattern for net exports. Other important findings are that financial variables such as credit or sovereign spreads are very volatile and strongly correlated with output. In addition, the results show that the properties of the relationship between economic activity, prices and the interest rates differs between pre-2001 and post-2001 period, whereas the relationship among the real variables shows a smaller change between these periods.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/teblig/abstract/wp1202_tr.php
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1202.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1202

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Email:
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Nominal Business Cycle Facts; Real Business Cycle Facts; Turkish Economy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. A. Hakan Kara, 2008. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
  2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  3. Tiryaki S. Tolga, 2012. "Interest Rates and Real Business Cycles in Emerging Markets," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-30, January.
  4. Altug, Sumru & Filiztekin, Alpay & Pamuk, Şevket, 2008. "Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880–2005," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 393-430, December.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," MPRA Paper 13898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Inklaar, Robert & Jacobs, Jan & Romp, Ward, 2003. "Business cycle indexes: does a heap of data help?," CCSO Working Papers 200312, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  7. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries - Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Huseyin Murat Ozbilgin, 2009. "Financial Market Participation and the Developing Country Business Cycle," Working Papers 0904, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  9. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
  10. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  11. Hakan Berument & M. Eray Yücel & Zübeyir Kilinç, 2005. "Business Cycles in Turkey and European Union Countries: A Perspective to the Membership," Departmental Working Papers 0506, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  12. Harun ALP & Yusuf Soner BAŞKAYA & Mustafa KILINÇ & Canan YÜKSEL, 2011. "Estimating Optimal Hodrick-Prescott Filter Smoothing Parameter for Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(306), pages 09-23.
  13. C. Emre Alper, 2000. "Stylized Facts of Business Cycles, Excess Volatility and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Working Papers 2000/11, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  14. Leon du Toit, 2008. "Optimal HP filtering for South Africa," Working Papers 07/2008, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  15. Everts, Martin, 2006. "Duration of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  17. Ozge Akinci & Yasemin Barlas Ozer & Bulent Usta, 2005. "Dolarizasyon Endeksleri : Turkiye’deki Dolarizasyon Surecine Iliskin Gostergeler," Working Papers 0517, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  18. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  19. Pedersen, Torben Mark, 2001. "The Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Slutzky effect, and the distortionary effect of filters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1081-1101, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Gonul Sengul, 2012. "Turkiye’de Emek Piyasasinin Cevrimsel Hareketinin Cinsiyet Bazinda Analizi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1209, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Credit constraints, productivity shocks and consumption volatility in emerging economies," Working Papers 13/121, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  3. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2011. "Turkiye Icin Hodrick-Prescott Filtresi Duzgunlestirme Parametresi Tahmini," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1103, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  4. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Ila Patnaik, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 13/120, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ali Culha, 2012. "Turkiye’de Vergi Gelirlerinin Iktisadi Dongulere Duyarliligi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1234, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  6. Mitra, Shalini, 2013. "Informality, financial development and macroeconomic volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 454-457.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gulhanim Kayatas).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.