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Inference about predictive ability when there are many predictors

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Author Info
Stanislav Anatolyev () (New Economic School)

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Abstract

We enhance the theory of asymptotic inference about predictive ability by considering the case when a set of variables used to construct predictions is sizable. To this end, we consider an alternative asymptotic framework where the number of predictors tends to in nity with the sample size, although more slowly. Depending on the situation the asymptotic normal distribution of an average prediction criterion either gains additional variance as in the few predictors case, or gains non-zero bias which has no analogs in the few predictors case. By properly modifying conventional test statistics it is possible to remove most size distortions when there are many predictors, and improve test sizes even when there are few of them.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0096.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0096

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  2. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. repec:att:wimass:1920114 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "Forecasting with Many Predictors," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Koenker, Roger, 1988. "Asymptotic Theory and Econometric Practice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 139-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
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  8. John C. Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1673-1692, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. John Galbraith & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2006. "Reduced-Dimension Control Regression," Departmental Working Papers 2006-17, McGill University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. repec:att:wimass:199710 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. West, Kenneth D & McCracken, Michael W, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 817-40, November.
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  13. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Bekker, Paul A, 1994. "Alternative Approximations to the Distributions of Instrumental Variable Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 657-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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