IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/soecon/v68y2002i3p703-711.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causality Links between Consumer and Producer Prices: Some Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Margarita Katsimi
  • Nikitas Pittis

Abstract

This paper reexamines the relationship between consumer and producer prices in the G7 countries (United States, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom, and Japan), and it improves on the existing literature in two ways. First, it takes into account causality links arising from the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which are generally overlooked. Second, it employs the causality testing method for unstable systems recently introduced by Toda and Yamamato (1995), which results in standard asymptotics, thereby obtaining valid statistical inference. The empirical results are consistent with the conventional wisdom according to which there is unidirectional causality running from producer to consumer prices, bidirectional causality (or even no significant links) only being found when the causality links reflecting the monetary transmission mechanism are ignored.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Margarita Katsimi & Nikitas Pittis, 2002. "Causality Links between Consumer and Producer Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 703-711, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:68:y:2002:i:3:p:703-711
    DOI: 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2002.tb00448.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2002.tb00448.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2002.tb00448.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    3. Cochrane, John H., 1998. "What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April.
    4. Lew Silver, J. & Dudley Wallace, T., 1980. "The lag relationship between wholesale and consumer prices : An application of the Hatanaka-Wallace procedure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 375-387, April.
    5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
    6. Colclough, William G. & Lange, Mark D., 1982. "Empirical evidence of causality from consumer to wholesale prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 379-384, August.
    7. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    8. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-1275, December.
    9. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    10. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
    11. Nikitas Pittis, 1999. "Efficient Estimation Of Cointegrating Vectors and Testing for Causality in Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35, February.
    12. Engle, Robert F, 1978. "Testing Price Equations for Stability across Spectral Frequency Bands," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 869-881, July.
    13. Toda, Hiro Y., 1995. "Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1015-1032, October.
    14. Alogoskoufis,George & Portes,Richard & Papademos,Lucas (ed.), 1991. "External Constraints on Macroeconomic Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405270.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Williams Corey J. M., 2023. "Unraveling Producer Price Inflation Pass-Through: Quantification, Structural Breaks, and Causal Direction," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Jing Sun & Jinhui Xu & Xin Cheng & Jichao Miao & Hairong Mu, 2023. "Dynamic causality between PPI and CPI in China: A rolling window bootstrap approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1279-1289, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    2. Tiwari, Aviral, 2010. "On the dynamics of energy consumption and employment in public and private sector," MPRA Paper 24076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikolaos Philippas & Nikitas Pittis, 2004. "Feedbacks between mutual fund flows and security returns: evidence from the Greek capital market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 981-989.
    5. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & Begum, Ismat Ara & Buysse, Jeroen & Rahman, Sanzidur & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of causal relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3243-3251, August.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal, 2012. "Does CPI Granger-cause WPI? New extensions from frequency domain approach in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1592-1597.
    7. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August.
    8. Liu, Guanchun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2016. "The dynamic linkage between insurance activities and banking credit: Some new evidence from global countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 40-53.
    9. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2001. "Long and short term dynamic causal transmission amongst international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 563-587, August.
    10. Yamada, Hiroshi & Toda, Hiro Y., 1998. "Inference in possibly integrated vector autoregressive models: some finite sample evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 55-95, June.
    11. Ibrahim, Taofik, 2018. "Government expenditure-revenue nexus reconsidered for Nigeria: Does structural break matter?," MPRA Paper 86220, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Oct 2017.
    12. Guan-Chun Liu & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2019. "The relationship between insurance and banking sectors: does financial structure matter?," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(4), pages 569-594, October.
    13. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    14. Jafari, Yaghoob & Othman, Jamal & Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari Mohd, 2012. "Energy consumption, economic growth and environmental pollutants in Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 879-889.
    15. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2005. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 849-856, November.
    16. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    17. Nour Wehbe & Bassam Assaf & Salem Darwich, 2018. "Étude de causalité entre la consommation d’électricité et la croissance économique au Liban," Post-Print hal-01944291, HAL.
    18. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006. "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
    19. Felix Nutakor & Sylvestre Bizumuremyi & Jinke Li & Wei Liu, 2020. "Does the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO 2 Emissions Exist for Rwanda? Evidence from Bootstrapped Rolling-Window Granger Causality Test," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-11, October.
    20. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Long‐run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long‐term Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-568, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:68:y:2002:i:3:p:703-711. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2325-8012 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.