This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Eliana González Molano ()
Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia ()
Anderson Grajales Olarte ()

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

En países como Colombia en donde se sigue una estrategia de inflación objetivo es fundamental para el Banco Central contar con buenos modelos para pronosticar la inflación. En este documento se comparan los pronósticos de inflación obtenidos a partir de un modelo de Curva de Phillips usando dos metodologías diferentes: pronósticos directos y pronósticos iterativos (tradicionales) para una muestra trimestral entre 1988 y 2007. Los pronósticos directos están basados en estimaciones OLS, mientras que los iterativos lo están en estimaciones tanto por OLS como por mínimos cuadrados flexibles. Los resultados encontrados muestran que al utilizar el mismo método de estimación, OLS, el error de pronóstico de la metodología directa es menor que el de la iterativa en el mediano plazo. Sin embargo, los pronósticos iterativos generados con la metodología de mínimos cuadrados flexibles superan a los directos - OLS.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra458.pdf
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 004246.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 22
Date of creation: 17 Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004246

Contact details of provider:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Norma Judith Paternina).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Weiss, Andrew A., 1991. "Multi-step estimation and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 135-149. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Martha Misas & Enrique López & Luis Fernando Melo, . "La Inflación desde una Perspectiva Monetaria: Un Modelo P* para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 133, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. R. Bhansali, 1996. "Asymptotically efficient autoregressive model selection for multistep prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 577-602, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Johnston, H N, 1974. "A Note on the Estimation and Prediction Inefficiency of "Dynamic" Estimators," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 251-55, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., . "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "VAR forecasting under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 99-136, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Guillaume Chevillon, 2005. "Direct multi-step estimation and forecasting," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-10, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Martha Misas & Enrique López & Pablo Querubín, . "La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales," Borradores de Economia 199, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Ing, Ching-Kang, 2003. "Multistep Prediction In Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 254-279, April. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kalaba, R. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2004. "Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers 11196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Chevillon, Guillaume & Hendry, David F., 2005. "Non-parametric direct multi-step estimation for forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 201-218. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 447, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  13. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, . "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 1999. "Un Examen Empirico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003676, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2007. "Euro area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 9-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 1000 archives contribute their bibliographic data to RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-1.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.