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La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales

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Author Info
Martha Misas ()
Enrique López ()
Pablo Querubín ()

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Abstract

A Statement of the Colombian Constitutional Court has mandated wage indexation on the basis of past inflation. A simple model with a wage price system, a real block, and an inflation targeting interest rule is calibrated to resemble price setting in the Colombian economy and to analize the differing slope of the output inflation trade oo for different specifications of wage indexation. The disinflation experiments the effect of monetary policy, and increases the cost of disinflation. Shorter wage contracts and more frequent wage negotiations do not appear to have important effects on the cost of disinflation. Higher central bank credibility and the use of forward looking inflation expectations in wage negotiations decrease the cost of disinflation and may eventually lead to a boom.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 199.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:199

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Raimundo Soto, . "Nonlinearities in the Demand for money: A Neural Network Approach," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv107, Ilades-Georgetown University, School of Economics and Bussines. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  3. Martha Misas & Enrique López & Luis Fernando Melo, . "La Inflación desde una Perspectiva Monetaria: Un Modelo P* para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 133, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nikola Gradojevic & Jing Yang, 2000. "The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Role of Market Microstructure Variables," Working Papers 00-23, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Non-Parametric and Neural Network Models of Inflation Changes," Working Papers 00-7, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Svensson, L.E.O., 1999. "Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem," Papers 667, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  8. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Terasvirta, Timo & Wolters, Jurgen, 1999. "Investigating Stability and Linearity of a German M1 Money Demand Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 511-25, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Tkacz, Greg & Hu, Sarah, 1999. "Forecasting GDP Growth Using Artificial Neural Networks," Working Papers 99-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 063, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Draisma, Gerrit & Kaashoek, Johan F. & Dijk, Herman van, 1995. "A neural network applied to economic time series," Discussion Paper 128, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Faculty of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Enrique López E & Martha Misas A, 1998. "Un Examen Empírico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Chung-Ming Kuan & Halbert White, 1992. "Artificial Neural Networks: An Econometric Perspective," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Other versions:
  17. Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Gazely, A M & Binner, J M, 2000. "The Application of Neural Networks to the Divisia Index Debate: Evidence from Three Countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(12), pages 1607-15, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004246, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal: aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 65, pages 73-116, Julio-Dic. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., . "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Norberto Rodríguez & Patricia Siado, 2003. "Un Pronóstico No Paramétrico De La Inflación Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003691, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  5. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, . "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Carlos A. Arango A. & Martha Misas A. & Juan Nicolás Hernández, . "La Demanda de Especies Monetarias en Colombia: Estructura y Pronóstico," Borradores de Economia 309, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Juan Camilo Santana, 2006. "Predicción de series temporales con redes neuronales: una aplicación a la inflación colombiana," Revista Colombiana de Estadística, REVISTA COLOMBIANA DE ESTADISTICA. [Downloadable!]
  8. NUÑEZ AMORTEGUI, Héctor Mauricio, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
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